The United Kingdom is weighing up its options on how to respond to Iran after it seized a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf on July 19, putting London in a difficult diplomatic position between Washington and Brussels.
British Prime Minister Theresa May chaired an emergency COBRA meeting on July 22 and called on Iran to release the Stena Impero vessel and its crew immediately.
“We do not seek confrontation with Iran but it is unacceptable and highly escalatory to seize a ship going about legitimate business through internationally recognized shipping lanes,” May said.
The move by Iran and its Revolutionary Guards comes as apparent retaliation for Britain’s capture of an Iranian tanker near Gibraltar two weeks ago, that was suspected of violating EU sanctions against Syria.
The rise in tensions between Iran and the U.K. will prove a decisive first test for May’s likely replacement, Boris Johnson, who will be sworn in on July 24 if he wins Tuesday (July 23)’s vote.
While Johnson said before the British tanker was seized that he would rule out military action against Iran, the U.K. could follow U.S. policy in strangling Tehran’s economy with sanctions.
On July 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, accused Trump’s security adviser John Bolton for luring the U.K. into war.
In a tweet, Zarif said: “Having failed to lure @realDonaldTrump into War of the Century ... @AmbJohnBolton is turning his venom against the UK in hopes of dragging it into a quagmire.”
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran spiked in June but stopped short of a full-blown military conflict after President Donald Trump canceled a bombing raid on Iran after Tehran downed a U.S. military drone.
Washington has instead repeatedly ramped up economic penalties on Tehran that followed its withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord last year, which allowed Iran access to global trade in return for limits on its nuclear program.
However, the EU, including the U.K., France, and Germany, rejected the U.S. 2018 decision and has tried to keep the pact alive so that it can keep a watch on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also tried to resolve the U.S. conflict with Iran by speaking to the leaders of both countries in recent weeks in an attempt to restart talks on the Iran nuclear deal.
Experts say sanctions against Iran would prove fruitless given the enormous economic penalties the U.S. has already slapped on Tehran, which include a harmful oil embargo.
It would also prove doubtful that Brussels would firmly stand behind the U.K. if it were to go down the sanctions route or pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.
“It would be tough to get unanimous EU support,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“There will be different forces pushing the new PM. At this stage, Johnson will find it difficult to get EU backing for an escalation of tensions. None of the options are great other than diplomatically resolving it,” she said.
Geranmayeh said another option could be a stronger naval presence in the Gulf but said that ultimately “no matter what direction the U.K. goes in, U.S. or EU, as long as the U.S. oil embargo is in place on Iran, it gives Iran the rational to act up.”
