Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) defied exit polls to secure a decisive victory in European parliamentary elections, dashing early hopes among pro-EU opposition candidates.
In the end, more than 45 per cent of votes went to the nationalist, eurosceptic PiS, which has long been at loggerheads with Brussels over judicial independence and allegations of authoritarianism.
Turnout was 45.6 per cent, a record for EU elections in Poland.
The victory is a boon for eurosceptic populists across Europe who are hoping to forge a more unified nationalist opposition to the centrist parties that have dominated EU politics for decades.
In Poland, the European Coalition (KE) came in second with just over 38 per cent while the socially liberal Wiosna (Spring) party got around six per cent, lower than expected.
The far-right Konfederacja alliance failed to pass the 5 per cent electoral threshold needed to send MEPs to Brussels, despite early indications from exit polls that it might.
The results means that PiS gets 23 seats in the European Parliament, where they sit in the European Conservatives and Reformists political group.
KE has 21 seats, which are split between the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.
Here are some reactions from analysts on the results in Poland.
Piotr Buras, head of Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
“It’s important to mention that 45 per cent is the best result any party in Poland has ever got in any elections since 1989. It’s a huge success for PiS and quite unexpected, especially the scope of the victory.
“We all expected these would be tight elections, and this seemed to be confirmed last night, but in the end it wasn’t as tight as we had thought. Seven per cent is quite a large margin.
“The most obvious reason for the PiS victory is that we are at the peak of our economic performance as a country. This is not a moment when you vote a government out of power. People are quite happy with the economic situation. We had an ECFR survey which showed that PiS voters were very optimistic about their future and the future of their children.
“There was no flow of voters between the two camps, PiS and KE, so it was all about mobilisation in these elections. Perhaps at the beginning of the campaign, PiS voters were not very mobilised because in EP elections you always have higher turnout in big cities, among the educated, the middle class – KE voters.
“But in the end, PiS did mobilise its voters and I think one of the important – and quite unexpected factors – was the debate about pedophilia in the Catholic Church.
“Of course, people everywhere were very critical of how the church handled the scandal, but in the end PiS and the church itself managed to convince many, especially in the conservative south of Poland, that this was an attack against the church itself, against our religion, traditions and values.
“You have to consider also that the church is quite powerful in rural areas and in parts of the country, the south especially, you only get the national TV, TVP, which is a tool of propaganda of the government.
“If you look at the overall picture, you could say KE made a mistake, but at the same time this was an inevitable one. They did not have a clear, convincing message and a coherent programme – because a coalition is by definition incoherent.
“KE focused on scaring people with the vision of Polexit, which was not credible. Especially after PiS backed down in its conflict with the European Commission, after PiS changed its tone on the EU and said we are in the heart of Europe and we want to co-shape it, the Polexit scare was not credible. PiS doesn’t want to leave the EU and it’s very difficult if not impossible for Poland under PiS to be kicked out.
“The good economic situation and the fact that PiS delivered on its 2015 electoral promises regarding social policy meant that there was no mood for change.
“It’s not the case that people can be motivated by the need to get rid of PiS alone. In order to convince people a change is needed when things are quite ok, you need a vision for the country, some ideas about how important things could be done better, and this is not what KE came up with.
“It was a success that KE was formed in the first place, but at the same time it was a trap, because these parties do not have many ideas in common.”
Jakub Majmurek, political commentator at Krytyka Polityczna
“I think that nobody had expected that PiS would win these elections by such a wide margin. I had personally bet on a tight draw between the two major political blocs in Poland, perhaps with a very slight lead of the European Coalition. As it turned out, however, PiS managed to secure an unambiguous, solid victory.
“How was PiS able to achieve that? I believe that their politics of culture wars and scaremongering simply worked. European issues were virtually absent in PiS’s campaign. The party placed its bet on the highly divisive issues that mobilise the conservative electorate.
“Equally important factors in PiS’s victory were the excellent state of the Polish economy, as well as many promises of increased social spending that PiS articulated on the campaign trail. Many Poles really felt that in terms of welfare and general prosperity they never had it so good as they have it now, under the Law and Justice government.
“According to the exit polls, PiS secured almost half of its votes from the rural population. Almost one-third of votes comes from pensioners. Only around 25 per cent of PiS’s electorate has a college degree. PiS established itself clearly in these elections as the party of the working class, the countryside and the seniors.
“The Polish political system is being pushed towards a two-party system, where KE is representing the more affluent, better educated, more metropolitan part of the population. The political projects which tried to challenge the PiS-KE duopoly failed on Sunday.
“The socially liberal, progressive Wiosna barely got through the electoral threshold of 5 per cent. Konfederacja, the coalition of far-right parties, failed to pass the threshold.
“Robert Biedron, the founder and leader of Wiosna, who a few months ago was seen as the new hope of Polish politics, is now in a very difficult place. Wiosna can’t be sure that it will get into the next parliament, and it might be compelled to join KE.
“But even with Wiosna on board, it would be quite difficult for KE to beat PiS in the parliamentary election this autumn, so PiS has a great chance of securing a second term.”
Bartek Lech, independent EU affairs analyst
“Last night [when exit polls were announced], I had the impression that KE leader Grzegorz Schetyna lost the elections and started to ask the crowd to chant “United opposition”, as if Robert Biedron from Wiosna was responsible for their defeat. But that’s not the case. Wiosna did its job.
“The problem is that Schetyna played the same card of the “old renowned politician” which doesn’t work anymore to overcome PiS.
“The KE is a coalition established strategically for some mathematical purpose. This is not a real coalition. It’s people who have nothing to do with one another but they still run on the same list. The question is whether Schetyna is the right person to lead them towards parliamentary elections.
“In any democracy, if the leader of such a coalition loses to the opponent, the leader resigns. They need to sit down and decide who would be better, but they need to restructure.
“On the level of democratic engagement, this was a success as turnout doubled. We could already count on people turning up in the cities, but it was also the smaller places which came out to vote. And voters decided to vote for a clear programme – which PiS and Wiosna had.
“The KE, on the other hand, was a list from the left to the right of the spectrum, and voters were confused. KE got the premium for unity, but after that you have to apply a discount for messed up message.
“The democratic opposition, in fact, has won, but it has won as two separate entities, KE and Wiosna. Of course thousands of things could have been done better, but the biggest victory of this election is that the opposition won and they have a chance to win in the general elections this fall.
“KE needs a new leader and to restructure, and Wiosna needs to consolidate further.”
