Annual Council Meeting 2015

PROGRAMME

DAY 1 – Thursday, 11 June 2015

• 13:00-13:15
  • WELCOME
    • Dick Oosting, CEO, ECFR
    • Mabel van Oranje, Co-Chair of Board, ECFR

• 13:15-14:15
  • EUROPE IN THE WORLD: 6 FANTASIES AND 6 REALITIES
  • Speakers:
    • Susi Dennison, Co-Director of European Power programme, ECFR
    • François Godement, Director of Asia and China programme, ECFR Richard Gowan, Associate Fellow, ECFR
    • Richard Gowan, Associate Fellow, ECFR
    • Daniel Levy, Director of Middle East and North Africa programme, ECFR
    • Kadri Liik, Wider Europe Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR
    • Jeremy Shapiro, Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
  • Moderator:
    • Mark Leonard, Director, ECFR
  • As the European External Strategy Review led by High Representative Federica Mogherini moves into its second phase — from defining the context to developing a strategic approach — ECFR experts will look at what Europe can and can’t achieve through a more coherent and effective European values-based foreign policy.

• 14:15-15:30
  • WHAT KIND OF EUROPEAN ORDER AFTER UKRAINE?
  • Speakers:
    • Prof Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies, Oxford University
    • Igor Ivanov, Former Foreign Minister of Russia
    • Norbert Röttgen, Member of the Bundestag; Chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee
    • George Soros, Founder and Chairman, Open Society Foundations
  • Moderator:
    • Matthew Kaminski, Editor, Politico
  • The Ukraine crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea have challenged — some may say destroyed — the European order. Russia is no longer seen as a potential partner but as an adversary. Old fault lines have re-emerged and new ones have arisen. Within the EU and NATO there is not agreement on the way forward. The US is pivoting to Asia, while European nations seem incapable of taking care of their continent. What will the new ‘European order’ look like? How can Europe find a modus vivendi with Russia? Is NATO reemerging, or have recent developments shown that its best days are behind it? Is Germany able to lead Europe “from the middle”?

• 16:00-16:30
  • WHAT KIND OF EUROPEAN ORDER AFTER UKRAINE?
    • Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade

• 16:30-17:45
  • WORKSHOPS (in parallel) – Session 1
  • THE MEDITERRANEAN CRISES AND LIBYA’S TURMOIL: WHAT IS EUROPE’S PLAN BEYOND MIGRATION?
  • Introductory Remarks:
    • Mattia Toaldo, Policy Fellow, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Enrique Mora, Director General for Foreign Affairs and Security, Foreign Ministry of Spain
    • Said Ferjani, Spokesperson, Tunisia’s Ennahdha Party Politburo
  • Moderator:
    • Franziska Brantner, Member of the Bundestag
  • The southern and eastern Mediterranean regions are areas of crises. From Turkey to Morocco, all countries are either at war or are subject to heavy spillover from neighbouring conflicts. What are the concrete threats to Europe, and what role does Libya play as a gateway for spillover to Europe? Can Europe have a role beyond just containment of migration? What kind of cooperation should Europe establish with these countries? How can EU-Gulf relations affect the de-escalation of the civil war in Libya?
  • WORKSHOPS – Session 2
  • IS IT IN THE EUROPEAN INTEREST TO SEE CHINA CARVE UP THE POST-SOVIET SPACE?
  • Introductory Remarks:
    • Ivan Krastev, Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies
  • Speakers:
    • François Godement, Director of Asia and China programme, ECFR
    • Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Former NATO Secretary General
    • Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
  • Moderator:
    • Sylvie Kauffmann, Editorial Director, Le Monde
  • China’s Silk Road project — a hugely ambitious plan to develop a “belt and road” linking China to Europe by land and sea — aims to revive the historical trade route through Central Asia. It will strengthen China’s presence in the post-Soviet space and could challenge Russia’s Eurasian Union project. Meanwhile, in Europe, China’s plans have so far not been examined from a strategic angle — even though several EU member states are directly involved in the project. What are the strategic implications of the Silk Road Economic Belt for the EU and how will it affect its relations with China, Russia and the six countries of the Eastern Partnership?
  • WORKSHOPS – Session 3
  • UNTAPPED ENERGY SOURCES: WHAT DOES EUROPE’S NEIGHBOURHOOD HOLD FOR THE EUROPEAN ENERGY UNION?
  • Introductory Remarks:
    • Vessela Tcherneva, Programmes Director, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Dick Benschop, President-Director, Shell Netherlands
    • David Koranyi, Director of the Eurasian Energy Future Initiatives, Atlantic Council
    • Daniel Mitov, Foreign Minister of Bulgaria
  • Moderator:
    • Valentina Pop, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal
  • Designed to overcome energy insecurity in the EU, the new-born European Energy Union is looking both inwards to better interconnectedness, and outwards to new energy sources. A number of options are being suggested by the European Commission as alternatives to Russian gas. However, they go hand in hand with conditionality for political and economic reforms. What is the viability of the options for diversifying away from Russian gas while taking into account the political realities in the neighbouring regions? What short and mid-term actions does the EU need to undertake in order to pave the way to energy security in the long term?

DAY 2 – Friday, 12 June 2015

• 07:30-08:30
  • EARLY BIRD BREAKFAST SESSIONS – Session 1
  • NEW MEMBERS WELCOME BREAKFAST
  • EARLY BIRD BREAKFAST SESSIONS – Session 2
  • THE ECFR SCORECARD AT 5: DEBRIEF AND FUTURE PLANS
  • The Scorecard team will brief Members on its plans to update the ECFR European Foreign Policy Scorecard following an in depth review.
  • EARLY BIRD BREAKFAST SESSIONS – Session 3
  • WILL MACEDONIA STAY ON EU COURSE OR DESCEND INTO CHAOS?
    • Introductory Remarks and Moderator: Vessela Tcherneva, Programmes Director, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Goran Buldioski, Director of Think Tank Fund, Open Society Foundations
    • Gerald Knaus, Chairman, European Stability Initiative
  • The political tension between Macedonia’s two main parties intensified following the Social Democrats accusation that the government was responsible for illegally wire-tapping the telephones of over 20,000 people, including opposition politicians. On 9 May clashes in the northern town of Kumanovo left 8 police and 14 gunmen dead. The government blamed ethnic Albanian “terrorists” from neighbouring Kosovo for the unrest. Opposition parties staged large protests calling on Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski to resign over alleged corruption, prompting counter-rallies by pro-government supporters. What are the most likely developments in the months ahead? How will this affect Macedonia’s relationship with the EU?

• 09:00-10:00
  • BEYOND ISIS AND THE COLLAPSING LEVANTINE ORDER: WHAT NEXT?
  • Introductory Remarks and Moderator: 
    • Julien Barnes-Dacey, Middle East and North Africa Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Emma Bonino, Co-Chair of Board, ECFR
    • Bassma Kodmani, Director, Arab Reform Initiative
    • Behlül Özkan, Assistant Professor, Marmara University
    • Javier Solana, Former EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy
  • With Syria and Iraq engulfed in a deep sectarian civil war that has already given life to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Levantine order is in a state of collapse. Even if state borders are preserved, the region has entered a phase of violent transformation that is radically reshaping the entire landscape, empowering new actors and forces, both local and regional, that are fundamentally opposed to the status quo ante. To what extent can and should Europe be taking a longer view even as it continues to focus on the anti-ISIS campaign and dislodging Bashar al-Assad from power? What kind of regional order is likely to emerge from the current phase of conflict and is there any space for European actors to positively impact the regional trajectory?

• 10:00-11:15
  • WORKSHOPS (in parallel) – Session 1
  • WHAT TTIP DEAL DOES EUROPE WANT?
  • Introductory Remarks and Moderator:
    • Josef Janning, Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Kemal DerviŠŸ, Vice President and Director of the Global Economy and Development program, Brookings Institute
    • José Manuel González Paramo, Executive Board Member, BBVA
    • Pascal Lamy, Former Director-General, World Trade Organization
    • Marietje Schaake, MEP; ALDE Group Spokesperson on TTIP
  • TTIP negotiations are now moving into a decisive phase. The pace of progress over the next six to nine months will indicate how comprehensive and ambitious the outcome could be. After intense and controversial debate in a number of member states, expectations in Europe are now more realistic. Should the EU go for the “early harvest” or should it stick to the comprehensive approach of including the more difficult NTB issues, even if it means extending negotiations until the next US-administration will be operative? How to deal with the “losers” of TTIP in Europe? What are essential NTB-issues for Europe (public procurement, services, digital)?
  • WORKSHOPS – Session 2
  • DOES EUROPE HAVE A DIGITAL FUTURE?
  • Introductory Remarks: 
    • José-Ignacio Torreblanca, Head of Madrid Office, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Carl Bildt, Co-Chair of Board, ECFR
    • Andrew Puddephatt, Director, Global Partners & Associated
    • Christoph Steck, Director Public Policy and Internet, Telefonica
  • Moderator: 
    • Gregor Peter Schmitz, Berlin Bureau Chief, Wirtschaftswoche
  • Among the many challenges to European power, the digital one is key yet often missing on the agenda. History shows that technological revolutions have the capacity to make or break great powers. The digital revolution is no different and Europe risks missing it entirely. European companies are lagging behind and regulation is outdated or inadequate. Cyber-security has displaced traditional security risks, both for companies and states and the digital revolution is changing the dynamics of diplomacy and soft power. How can Europe overcome its issues of funding and regulation to compete with the huge international corporations that preside over the digital economy? Will member states co-ordinate their security strategies sufficiently to deal with cyber-security challenges? How can the EU preserve an open and free internet in which European open society values can prosper?
  • WORKSHOPS – Session 3
  • WHAT RUSSIA POLICY DOES EUROPE NEED?
  • Introductory Remarks: 
    • Kadri Liik, Wider Europe Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Robert Cooper, Diplomat
    • Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
    • Vaira Vike-Freiberga, Former President of Latvia
  • Moderator: 
    • Christine Ockrent, Commentator and Writer
  • Russia’s annexation of Crimea has made the EU aware that not only does Moscow not share Europe’s liberal outlook when it comes to domestic arrangements, but it also does not subscribe to the EU’s understanding of the European order. It is clear that the EU’s Russia-policy that used to be based on the assumption that the EU and Russia share if not values, then at least interests, needs to be changed. But how? What is the actual nature of the disagreements between the EU and Russia and how to overcome them?

• 11:45-12:45
  • HOW TO KEEP BRITAIN IN THE EU?
  • Introductory Remarks: 
    • Mark Leonard, Director, ECFR
  • Speakers:
    • Vidar Helgesen, Europe Minister of Norway
    • John Bruton, President, IFSC Ireland, Former Taoiseach
    • Tom Nuttall, Charlemagne Columnist, The Economist
    • Pierre Vimont, Former Secretary-General, European External Action Service
  • Moderator: 
    • Ryan Heath, Senior Correspondent, Politico
  • The new British government, elected on 7 May, has pledged to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership before the end of 2017. The danger of a ‘Brexit’ — a British exit of the European Union — has become more real. Are the reforms proposed by David Cameron a solution? Will other EU members concede to British demands? Would it be better for the EU if Britain left?

• 12:45-13:00
  • CLOSING REMARKS

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