Mob unhappy: Why Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious in Ukraine
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
Wider Europe
Old order dying: What European decision-makers think of Russia
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise
Escape routes: How the EU can help Moldova end its dependence on Russian gas
Moldova’s total dependence on Russian gas makes it a key front in Moscow’s hybrid war. The EU should help Moldova diversify its energy supplies to prevent further destabilisation.
No partial measures: How Ukraine can meet the challenge of Russia’s mobilisation
Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation is a sign of desperation. Yet Ukraine will still need weapons deliveries to help respond to the arrival of thousands of Russian conscripts.
The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Preparing for the Long War
Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
In Europe’s gift: How to avoid a Ukraine ‘forever war’
The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment