What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
Wider Europe
Home and away: Why Poland is fighting a war on two fronts
Poland should be at the forefront in deterring Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Instead, its government is hindered by political infighting and an unclear position towards Ukrainians in Poland. Tusk and Nawrocki need to put aside their differences and let Poland lead on European security policy
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
Axis of unease: Why Europeans should try to manage a Turkey-Israel rivalry
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains
Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task
The perpetual horizon: Armenia, Azerbaijan and prospects for peace
Armenia and Azerbaijan have never been so close to peace—but bilateral issues and geopolitical complications mean a new escalation is still possible. The EU needs to use what levers it has to help the two countries ensure the former comes to pass
General knowledge: Russian military chiefs, the Russian public and Ukraine and China
When Russian military leaders are thought to oppose government policy, the Russian public appear to give them a sympathetic hearing
A narrow window: How Europeans can still halt Georgia’s authoritarian turn
As Georgia teeters on the brink of authoritarianism, Europe’s fractured resolve risks ceding the south Caucasus to Russian and Chinese influence. A coalition of France, Germany and Poland, together with Britain, could salvage its democracy and stability
Publications
The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic
Russia is rapidly developing—and militarising—its Arctic territory as a strategic priority, even amid its war on Ukraine. Add Trump’s coveting of Greenland to the mix, and the next confrontation in Europe could be in its High North
Bridging the Bosphorus: How Europe and Turkey can turn tiffs into tactics in the Black Sea
After years of bickering, Europe and Turkey need each other more than ever. A security partnership in the Black Sea could be the first step toward a pragmatic, if uneasy, alliance to contain Russia
Geopolitical greenery: How decarbonisation can speed the Western Balkans towards the EU
The EU should provide extra support to Western Balkan countries to boost the green transition—and ease future integration into the bloc
Northern lights: How a Nordic-Baltic coalition of the willing can do even more for Ukraine
The NB8 countries are some of Ukraine’s most steadfast supporters. Amid shifting transatlantic politics, their role in strengthening Ukraine’s defence is set to become increasingly vital
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Balka-Seltzer: How to avoid excess gas in the Western Balkans
The Western Balkans could enact a comprehensive energy transition straight from coal to renewables – but the region seems to be drifting towards greater use of gas. It is in both the EU’s and the Western Balkans’ interest to mitigate this trend
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
Late-stage Putinism: The war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
Brass tacks: Why Russia’s military fails to reform
The Kremlin has long attempted to reform Russia’s military, but a dysfunctional system of civilian control has led to repeated failures, including in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These problems will likely continue after the war unless a new Russian leadership emerges to address these persistent systemic problems
Articles
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
Home and away: Why Poland is fighting a war on two fronts
Poland should be at the forefront in deterring Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Instead, its government is hindered by political infighting and an unclear position towards Ukrainians in Poland. Tusk and Nawrocki need to put aside their differences and let Poland lead on European security policy
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
Axis of unease: Why Europeans should try to manage a Turkey-Israel rivalry
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains
Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task
The perpetual horizon: Armenia, Azerbaijan and prospects for peace
Armenia and Azerbaijan have never been so close to peace—but bilateral issues and geopolitical complications mean a new escalation is still possible. The EU needs to use what levers it has to help the two countries ensure the former comes to pass
General knowledge: Russian military chiefs, the Russian public and Ukraine and China
When Russian military leaders are thought to oppose government policy, the Russian public appear to give them a sympathetic hearing
A narrow window: How Europeans can still halt Georgia’s authoritarian turn
As Georgia teeters on the brink of authoritarianism, Europe’s fractured resolve risks ceding the south Caucasus to Russian and Chinese influence. A coalition of France, Germany and Poland, together with Britain, could salvage its democracy and stability
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
The European pillar of security
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Élie Tenenbaum and Oleksandr Sushko to discuss June’s NATO summit—and what Europe’s security step up means for Ukraine
Ukrainian society in wartime
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko welcome Fredrik Wesslau and Volodymyr Yermolenko to unpack how, over three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian society continues to persist in the face of aggression
Ceasefire in Ukraine?
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss whether a flurry of last-minute diplomacy can prevent a Ukraine settlement on Russia’s terms
Erdogan’s crackdown: Turkey and the fight for democracy
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to unpack the recent political upheaval in Turkey and its broader geopolitical implications
Decoding the call: What the Trump-Putin exchange means for global politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Kirill Shamiev to unpack the recent phone call between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin
Ceasefire or crossroads: Ukraine, the US and Russia’s next move
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin to discuss the recent Ukraine-US agreement on a 30-day ceasefire and its implications for the conflict with Russia
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new era…
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Events
26
Mar
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
6
Nov
European Power
Oltre l’Emergenza: Italia e Minacce Ibride tra Crisi Immediata e Rischio Sistemico
Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura multivettoriale e sistemica di tali minacce, e individuare strategie di contrasto e strumenti efficaci…
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention mechanisms…
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
5
Jun
European Power
Rome Foreign Policy Club 2025 – Come Undone: Europa e Italia tra frammentazione globale e vulnerabilità del vicinato
Nella sua edizione 2025, la quarta da quando il progetto è stato lanciato, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani think tanker italiani under-40 per elaborare ipotesi di scenario rilevanti per la politica estera e multilaterale italiana ed europea. Tale esercizio si pone come obiettivo la formulazione di raccomandazioni a supporto delle attività di policy…
18
Mar
United States
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni contro…
European Security
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure. Neither Ukraine nor its European partners want the fighting to continue indefinitely – they want the ability to shape the terms of an eventual settlement. To do so, Ukraine needs…
25
Feb
European Power
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo and in partnership with Italian foreign policy magazine Formiche. After a first meeting on the content layer of the internet, which was held in Rome in June…
In the media
Leo Litra on the unblocking of the loan to Kyiv and its implications for Ukraine’s long-term strategy