Russian gas has stopped flowing to Europe, leaving Transnistria without an energy supply. Moldova, dependent on electricity from the breakaway region, is now facing soaring inflation months away from a crucial parliamentary election
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
The EU can work with existing regional integration mechanisms in the Western Balkans to help cut carbon emissions through transport investment
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
With Salome Zourabichvili set to be replaced in Saturday’s presidential elections, Georgian Dream will tighten its grip on power, leaving protestors with no institutional support
Albania has begun talks to become an EU member state. Successful accession could restore credibility in the enlargement process for Western Balkan and eastern European candidate countries – while offering enhanced political and economic stability for Albania
Romanian institutions could have better protected the elections had they not underestimated the rise of the far right and tolerated radical and nationalist elements in their ranks
Barely a month after Georgian Dream declared victory in a contested and undemocratic election, Georgia’s European future hangs by a thread. The EU must act decisively to prevent its slide towards Moscow
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
The Kremlin has embraced a narrative that deeply resonates with the global south: that the Western world order is unjust, positioning Russia as its main challenger. However, translating this narrative into concrete actions has been challenging for Putin’s regime
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
The Western Balkans could enact a comprehensive energy transition straight from coal to renewables – but the region seems to be drifting towards greater use of gas. It is in both the EU’s and the Western Balkans’ interest to mitigate this trend
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
The Kremlin has long attempted to reform Russia’s military, but a dysfunctional system of civilian control has led to repeated failures, including in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These problems will likely continue after the war unless a new Russian leadership emerges to address these persistent systemic problems
European governments need a more coordinated response to Russian democrats in exile – to give them certainty for the future and help guard against Kremlin subversion
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been competing with the West for the support of the rest of the world. But with all of its relationships now subordinate to its war effort, Moscow’s foreign policy is weakened
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
A new power audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement shows broad agreement that it is a geopolitical necessity, but major disagreements about how to prepare the EU. To make credible progress, EU member states need to agree on a roadmap that addresses their conflicting concerns at the European Council meeting in December
Russian gas has stopped flowing to Europe, leaving Transnistria without an energy supply. Moldova, dependent on electricity from the breakaway region, is now facing soaring inflation months away from a crucial parliamentary election
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
The EU can work with existing regional integration mechanisms in the Western Balkans to help cut carbon emissions through transport investment
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
With Salome Zourabichvili set to be replaced in Saturday’s presidential elections, Georgian Dream will tighten its grip on power, leaving protestors with no institutional support
Albania has begun talks to become an EU member state. Successful accession could restore credibility in the enlargement process for Western Balkan and eastern European candidate countries – while offering enhanced political and economic stability for Albania
Romanian institutions could have better protected the elections had they not underestimated the rise of the far right and tolerated radical and nationalist elements in their ranks
Barely a month after Georgian Dream declared victory in a contested and undemocratic election, Georgia’s European future hangs by a thread. The EU must act decisively to prevent its slide towards Moscow
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
The Kremlin has embraced a narrative that deeply resonates with the global south: that the Western world order is unjust, positioning Russia as its main challenger. However, translating this narrative into concrete actions has been challenging for Putin’s regime
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
Mark Leonard welcomes Tefta Kelmendi and Nicu Popescu to discuss what the EU can learn from the recent elections in Georgia and Moldova
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport,…
Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol to talk about global order and Turkey
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
In this final episode, we discuss how the war has transformed Russian society and political culture, and outline possible scenarios for its medium to long term political trajectory
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Jana Puglierin, Maria Simeonova, José Ignacio Torreblanca, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss the European Parliament elections and the future of European politics
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we delve deeper into Russia’s foreign policy, taking a long-term perspective.
On 12 December, the German Embassy in Washington DC and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will host a public discussion which will take…
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
This webinar will explore the role of ideology in the day-to-day management of the Russian political regime
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
The EU should continue to provide the financial and technical support the country needs. It will determine the fate of Moldova and its future in the EU
Unfortunately, Zelensky does not have the luxury to be hostile towards Trump
The EU should be present [as an institution] in future negotiations because it is one of the significant providers and coordinators of assistance to Ukraine
Europeans should be prepared to come up with concrete ideas on how to secure Ukraine over the long term, without being able to rely on the United States the way they used to
