The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
Ukraine
Featured
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Preparing for the Long War
Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
In Europe’s gift: How to avoid a Ukraine ‘forever war’
The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
State of the Union: How the energy crisis can strengthen EU unity
The European Commission president’s annual address has not pleased everybody – but its focus on energy reflects a deeper understanding of the nature of security today
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
Publications
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs
The campaign has encouraged Zelensky’s tendency towards governance through informal means. This has allowed him to act speedily – but it risks letting oligarchic influence return
Zelensky unchained: What Ukraine’s new political order means for its future
Introduction Volodymyrska Hill, Kyiv, on a June evening in 2019. Kyivans and tourists stroll along the riverside park’s newly relaid paths, many wending their way…
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Articles
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Preparing for the Long War
Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
In Europe’s gift: How to avoid a Ukraine ‘forever war’
The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
State of the Union: How the energy crisis can strengthen EU unity
The European Commission president’s annual address has not pleased everybody – but its focus on energy reflects a deeper understanding of the nature of security today
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
How the West can help Ukraine capitalise on the Kherson counteroffensive
Ukraine has lured a significant number of Russian troops south – but the country still needs significant help on arms deliveries
Lessons for the West: Russia’s military failures in Ukraine
Ukraine has proven that it can counter Russian military tactics and strategy. To continue to do so, the country will require greater support from the West.
Russia’s war on Ukraine viewed from China
Westerners regard Russia’s war as an attack on the rules-based order, but Chinese scholars see it as another harbinger of the denouement of US hegemony. While Americans and Europeans can argue with this position, it would be a mistake not to take it seriously.
Podcasts
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The future of open society with Leonard Benardo
Leonard Benardo joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing
Ukraine in the age of unpeace with Fiona Hill
Fiona Hill and Mark Leonard talk to Jason Cowley talk to about the new paperback edition of Mark Leonard’s latest book, “The Age of Unpeace”, in light of the war in Ukraine
Lessons for a post-Ukraine world with Fareed Zakaria
Fareed Zakaria discusses the political, geopolitical, and geo-economic changes to the world order after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
The new Davos man: Ukraine, energy, and global powers
What were this World Economic forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing?
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
Events
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
23 Jun
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: Pandemia e guerra in Ucraina. La visione dei cittadini europei
Lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo organizzano a Torino una nuova edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sulla visione dei cittadini europei su pandemia e guerra in Ucraina
22 Jun
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international system
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
11 Apr
Crisi energetica. La Geopolitica del Green Deal. Sovranità energetica europea, conflitto in Ucraina e competizione tra Grandi Potenze
Il conflitto in Ucraina ha confermato l’urgenza di un’azione congiunta europea su energia e clima
6 Apr
Invasione russa dell’Ucraina: Ruolo dell’UE nel contesto regionale e globale
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
23 Mar
The role of outside powers in Ukraine
Do any outside powers have any chance of bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to peace?
11 Mar
No longer only deeply concerned: Europe’s military response to the Russian war and what next
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months.
3 Mar
Zeitenwende: Germany as a pioneer in foreign and security policy?
A webinar on Germany’s change of course in defence spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
In the media
There will be that moment where we need to either deliver western-designed tanks to Ukraine or basically throw them under the bus
They are recruiting cannon fodder
There are parallels, of course, also in Syria…. (…) But the aim was not to exterminate the Syrians as a people. They did not say: Syria must not exist…
Gustav Gressel believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine is different from Russia’s other wars
Already, the morale of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine is low
Another major problem of the partial mobilisation is likely to be the motivation of the reservists, finds Gustav Gressel