Finland has redefined its security interest, leading it inexorably towards NATO membership. If Sweden joins too, a significant new regional grouping within the alliance could emerge.
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Russia’s new offensive in Ukraine calls for a change in the Western response. NATO countries should supply the Ukrainian military with advanced systems and the training to use them.
Russia is drawing on its Syria playbook and regrouping for a long war to seize the whole of Ukraine. The West needs to take action now to supply Ukraine with Western equipment.
Defence industrial cooperation between Italy and Germany could boost the EU’s geopolitical credibility and capacity for technological innovation. There is no strategic autonomy without a strong defence industry.
The Strategic Compass underlines the collective action problem at the heart of European attempts to pool defence efforts and resources: everyone agrees that closer integration is essential, but everyone wants someone else to go first
A prolonged confrontation would help Russia regroup and adapt. The quicker Ukraine receives more military support from its allies, the greater its chances of driving Russian forces out of its territory.
Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine has convinced many European states to rebuild their militaries. In doing so, they should initially focus on readiness, capability gaps, and joint equipment procurement and research.
Many more Ukrainians want to defend their country than have the weapons to do so. An increase in Western military support is vital to Ukraine’s survival.
The Kremlin’s secrecy in waging war on Ukraine has created severe problems on the battlefield. Inadequate force generation seems responsible for many of these problems.