Combine to survive: The European defence sector on the threshold
The EU should help private companies become more competitive through defence technology-guided industrial policy
Security and Defence
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
25 Feb
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia…
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the first…
Moscow’s mind games: Ambiguity around Russia’s nukes aims to rattle Europe
Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric and missile strikes are part of a broader strategy of cognitive warfare, blending military power with psychological intimidation. His manipulative messaging aims to rattle NATO’s resolve and create uncertainty in Europe’s response
Drones in Ukraine: Four lessons for the West
From overreliance on China to the growing involvement of civilians, the extensive use of drones in the Ukraine war offers crucial lessons for future conflicts
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
Publications
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
The big engine that might: How France and Germany can build a geopolitical Europe
The EU Coalition Explorer survey reveals the importance of Germany and France within the EU, and the impact they can have when they cooperate with each other
Machine politics: Europe and the AI revolution
The EU appears to be largely uninterested in AI’s geopolitical importance, but its member states can only influence the global development of AI if they act tog
Divided at the centre: Germany, Poland, and the troubles of the Trump era
Introduction For most Europeans, it is now obvious that the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump threatens the global liberal order. Trump’s hostility towards…
Under the gun: Rearmament for arms control in Europe
Introduction During the cold war, arms control and disarmament agreements helped create a stable equilibrium between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, reducing the…
No middle ground: Moving on from the crypto wars
The ‘second crypto war’ is in full swing; European governments need to stop trying to defeat encryption and get more sophisticated themselves instead
Articles
Combine to survive: The European defence sector on the threshold
The EU should help private companies become more competitive through defence technology-guided industrial policy
Letter from Washington: Why Trump ignores Europe
Donald Trump has effectively ignored Europeans in his plan for negotiations over the war in Ukraine. In searching for a reason, Europeans must face the uncomfortable truth: they simply aren’t important enough
Moscow’s mind games: Ambiguity around Russia’s nukes aims to rattle Europe
Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric and missile strikes are part of a broader strategy of cognitive warfare, blending military power with psychological intimidation. His manipulative messaging aims to rattle NATO’s resolve and create uncertainty in Europe’s response
Drones in Ukraine: Four lessons for the West
From overreliance on China to the growing involvement of civilians, the extensive use of drones in the Ukraine war offers crucial lessons for future conflicts
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
America first, Europe next: Trump will change dynamics in Western Balkan security
With US involvement waning, Europe faces a critical test in securing the Western Balkans. Renewed EU commitment could transform its neighbourhood and bolster its security
Three’s a crowd: Why Egypt’s and Somalia’s row with Ethiopia can embolden al-Shabaab
Somalia’s new defence pact with Egypt has angered Ethiopia, undermining coalition efforts to contain al-Shabaab, a Jihadist group. European diplomats can help revert this dangerous path
Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine
Accession to the EU needs to be complemented by the security alliance
Staying afloat: How the EU can navigate the Black Sea to counter Russian aggression
The Black Sea’s strategic importance is increasingly evident in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russia’s weakening military capacity in the Black Sea region presents an opportunity for the EU to further its security, trade, and connectivity interests – while providing support for its littoral states
Breaking tradition: Why Russia’s war is making Switzerland question its neutrality
Europe’s rapidly changing geopolitical position is causing Switzerland to rethink elements of its neutrality. This dramatic break in tradition should be a warning to other European countries that the continent’s security context is less safe and less certain
Podcasts
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the first…
NATO at 75: The future of European defence
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
How Europe can prepare for America’s withdrawal
At the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand and Jana Puglierin to understand how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency
A new defence strategy for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand to discuss the future of European defence
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
The NATO Summit and the future of European Defence
Mark Leonard is joined by Nick Witney, Jana Puglierin, and Tara Varma, to evaluate the outcomes of the NATO Summit in Madrid, especially regarding European defence
New era, new alliance: NATO, Sweden, and Finland
What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries?
Events
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
25 Feb
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia…
21 Oct
How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Yet, European governments…
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
8 Jul
The Morning After: Analysing the Results of the French Election
As France discovers the new making of its national assembly, this webinar will analyse the election results and reflect on their impact on a geopolitical…
1 Jul
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of…
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
13 May
Sicherheit im Baltikum: Welche Rolle spielt die Brigade Litauen?
Am 8. April 2024 brach das 21-köpfige Vorkommando der Brigade Litauen nach Vilnius auf. Die Bundeswehrangehörigen werden in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten die erste…
In the media
The Europeans share with the United States the ambition to achieve a ceasefire and, ideally, a sustainable peace. But they differ on ways to achieve this goal
Marie Dumoulin on what to expect from the extraordinary European Council meeting on Ukraine