Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
The European Union should offer Ukraine preferential access to the single market, and help avoid predictions of a ‘long war’ becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
The European Commission president’s annual address has not pleased everybody – but its focus on energy reflects a deeper understanding of the nature of security today
Ukraine has lured a significant number of Russian troops south – but the country still needs significant help on arms deliveries
Decision-makers in Tehran are developing the Iran-Russia relationship in significant ways, but they seem careful not to fully turn away from the West and towards Moscow
It is wishful thinking to believe that travel restrictions on Russian nationals would affect the Kremlin’s policies
Ukraine will need more advanced heavy weapons if it is to conduct an effective large-scale counter-offensive against Russia. The West can help in two main ways.
Russia’s rumoured purchase of Iranian drones is unlikely to have a major impact in its war on Ukraine. It is unclear how quickly Russian forces could become proficient with these systems.