Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
Russian officials are becoming increasingly vocal about their support for the war in Ukraine. This is likely to continue unless the EU ramps up personal sanctions against such individuals
The Russian Orthodox Church’s expansion into Africa is a reminder that Western policymakers should treat the church as an arm of the Russian state
The ruling United Russia party had an unsurprising victory in Russia’s regional elections, but the means the Kremlin used to achieve this reveal how electoral success may be secured in the future
Russian president Vladimir Putin presents himself as the antidote to the pain of the 1990s, instead fashioning his leadership as a continuation of Russia’s grand history. By reconciling with this past, Russia’s opposition can threaten Putin’s legitimacy and offer Russia a path towards a new political future
The changing global order has created an enabling environment for the recent spike of takeovers in Africa’s ‘coup belt’ – with Russia and newly assertive middle powers offering themselves as partners to putschists
The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine. Such a policy should centre around support for countries that border Russia, the reduction of Russia’s influence worldwide, and preparation for scenarios of change within the country
Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration has shown the benefits of a humane approach towards refugees. It should set a precedent for a more compassionate European migration policy
The rise of private military companies remains a concern for Russian governing elites, but the Wagner mutiny has consolidated their support for the Putin regime
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is contending with a well-prepared enemy. Western allies need to remain patient as they equip Ukraine to put continued pressure on Russian defences