On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
The Kremlin has embraced a narrative that deeply resonates with the global south: that the Western world order is unjust, positioning Russia as its main challenger. However, translating this narrative into concrete actions has been challenging for Putin’s regime
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
When it comes to elections, Vladimir Putin is not one for surprises. But his love for certainty may be the regime’s undoing – without some remnant of electoral competition, the Kremlin cannot address Russian resentment until its out on the streets
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
If Moldova can resist Russia’s weaponisation of gas and get through this winter, it should be able to make strong progress on its programme of reforms
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
Despite recent ceasefire talks, Putin’s programme of terror in Ukraine continued with a Palm Sunday attack on Sumy. Europeans need to maintain a “wartime mindset” and persuade the US that Russia’s hostility is not at an end
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
The Kremlin has embraced a narrative that deeply resonates with the global south: that the Western world order is unjust, positioning Russia as its main challenger. However, translating this narrative into concrete actions has been challenging for Putin’s regime
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
When it comes to elections, Vladimir Putin is not one for surprises. But his love for certainty may be the regime’s undoing – without some remnant of electoral competition, the Kremlin cannot address Russian resentment until its out on the streets
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Mark Leonard welcomes Kirill Shamiev to unpack the recent phone call between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin
In this final episode, we discuss how the war has transformed Russian society and political culture, and outline possible scenarios for its medium to long term political trajectory
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we delve deeper into Russia’s foreign policy, taking a long-term perspective.
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we examine public opinion in Russia
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we dive deeper into Russia’s economy during the war on Ukraine
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons.
How do Russian officials “coexist” with the war nearly two years after the invasion? How has the bureaucratic system adapted to the requirements of the war?…
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers and…
On 1 September, Russian high schools transitioned to new “patriotic” history textbooks authored by one of Russia’s staunchest conservatives, former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky. How…
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
Roma, 6 novembre 2025Hotel NH Collection Roma Centro, Via dei Gracchi 324, 00192 Roma Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura…
The event will contribute to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention…
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo le regole Chatham House. La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo…
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Embassy of Estonia in Rome; the Embassy of Republic of Latvia in Rome; the Embassy of Republic of Lithuania in Rome; the Embassy…
Negli ultimi anni, la presenza della Russia in Africa è cresciuta significativamente, sia nel Nord Africa che nell’Africa Subsahariana, presentando una sfida strategica per l’Europa e, in particolare, per l’Italia. Mosca ha rafforzato la sua presenza nel continente attraverso una serie di accordi bilaterali, cooperazioni militari, e investimenti economici e nel settore energetico. Questo incremento di influenza è stato percepito come una mossa strategica per aumentare il suo peso globale e per contrastare l’influenza occidentale
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for Ukraine’s future and European Defence, based on ECFR’s latest public opinion. This webinar will delve into the nuanced public perceptions of the war in Ukraine in Ukraine itself, Switzerland, the UK as well as…
This webinar will explore the role of ideology in the day-to-day management of the Russian political regime
Teresa Coratella, Deputy Head and Policy Fellow at ECFR’s Rome office, on disinformation as a tool of hybrid warfare in Europe: “To talk about disinformation today, we need to talk about the anatomy of European public opinion today, an opinion that, over the past five or six years, has been subjected to unprecedented pressures.”
Teresa Coratella, Deputy Head and Policy Fellow at ECFR Rome office, argues that disinformation has become a central tool of hybrid warfare in Europe. Because its effects spill into everyday public life, shaping trust, social cohesion, and democratic choices, hybrid warfare cannot remain a topic confined to policymakers and stakeholders: it must be understood and confronted by citizens as a whole
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