Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion
Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating
Geoeconomics
Featured
No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. The creation of an EU network focused on the design and implementation of these tools could help fix this
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Shallow seas and “shadow fleets”: Europe’s undersea infrastructure is dangerously vulnerable
Moscow’s latest disruptive measures against Europe involve targeting cables traversing the Baltic Sea. The EU needs to bolster its deterrence posture and secure its infrastructure against such sabotage
Regulate or stagnate: Why the EU must lead on AI
While the US administration dodges regulation in the name of innovation, the real problem is the lack of common rules. Europe has an opportunity to set the standard—if it’s bold enough to take it
What Europe can learn from Trump’s trade manoeuvres against Canada and Mexico
Donald Trump announced that the US was imposing high trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico—only to pause them a few hours later. Europeans should monitor Trump’s playbook and learn from the countries’ response
Borrowed time: How defence spending can bridge the EU’s fiscal divide
Europe’s geopolitical strength hinges on its ability to invest boldly and cooperatively. To transcend the divide between its frugal and spender member states, the EU should begin with defence spending
Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm
As it gets ready for a tumultuous US presidency, the EU is something of a geopolitical castaway. To emerge (reasonably) unscathed from the next four years, EU leaders should learn from shipwrecked sailors about the need to keep calm, remain united and stay focused on long-term priorities
Stand by me: Why EU trade actions need member-state consensus
Since Donald Trump’s re-election, the EU has been remarkably active on the trade scene. The bloc’s member state capitals must commit to future deals to ensure that talks are followed by implementation
From niche innovations to global powerhouse: An EU quantum strategy
Quantum technologies are transforming the global economic and security landscape, and the EU has much to gain. But without decisive action to address funding gaps and coordination challenges, its leadership potential may remain unrealised
The purpose of sanctions: Why Europe and America should begin lifting measures on Syria
Europeans and Americans should work closely together on a staged sanctions lifting process. They must connect this to respect for human rights and the holding of elections
Open trade, open minds: Why opposing the Mercosur trade deal would hurt the EU
An agreement between the EU and the Mercosur trade bloc promises an 800-million-person market and reduced tariffs. Yet political fears in Europe threaten to derail the landmark deal, jeopardising global alliances and the EU’s position as a leader in multilateral trade
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Publications
Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion
Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating
No brain, no brawn: Trump 2.0 makes an EU Economic Security Network essential
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. The creation of an EU network focused on the design and implementation of these tools could help fix this
Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario
In the coming years, China’s leaders could make good on their pledges to “reunify” Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by force. European policymakers need to begin preparing economic statecraft options for such a scenario – and they need to do so now
Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission
The EU cannot afford to stay divided on its green industrial policy. Instead, the next European Commission should spearhead a common and credible approach to ensure the bloc catches the next green technology wave
Fortune favours the bold: Upgrading the EU’s geoeconomic strategy
The EU has started to join the dots between its economic and security policies. But as other powers reshape the geoeconomic landscape, it needs to upgrade its strategy beyond risk mitigation and competitiveness
The infinite connection: How to make the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor happen
The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor is alive, if not yet kicking. Europeans should use the hiatus in the corridor’s development to agree on the next steps, with a focus on reconciling the various goals of all its participants
The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions
Amid the US-China strategic competition, the EU must develop a new strategic technology doctrine and upgrade its export control policy
Tough trade: The hidden costs of economic coercion
The EU needs to develop an Anti-Coercion Instrument that acts as a powerful economic deterrent, but this alone will not sufficiently protect Europe against economic coercion
Geo-tech politics: Why technology shapes European power
New technologies are a significant force shaping international relations. If the EU wants to be more than a mediator between the US and China, it will need to change its mindset
Measured response: How to design a European instrument against economic coercion
The anti-coercion instrument needs to enable countermeasures that are both effective and credible; if it does not, this could carry more risks than benefits
Articles
Shallow seas and “shadow fleets”: Europe’s undersea infrastructure is dangerously vulnerable
Moscow’s latest disruptive measures against Europe involve targeting cables traversing the Baltic Sea. The EU needs to bolster its deterrence posture and secure its infrastructure against such sabotage
Regulate or stagnate: Why the EU must lead on AI
While the US administration dodges regulation in the name of innovation, the real problem is the lack of common rules. Europe has an opportunity to set the standard—if it’s bold enough to take it
What Europe can learn from Trump’s trade manoeuvres against Canada and Mexico
Donald Trump announced that the US was imposing high trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico—only to pause them a few hours later. Europeans should monitor Trump’s playbook and learn from the countries’ response
Borrowed time: How defence spending can bridge the EU’s fiscal divide
Europe’s geopolitical strength hinges on its ability to invest boldly and cooperatively. To transcend the divide between its frugal and spender member states, the EU should begin with defence spending
Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm
As it gets ready for a tumultuous US presidency, the EU is something of a geopolitical castaway. To emerge (reasonably) unscathed from the next four years, EU leaders should learn from shipwrecked sailors about the need to keep calm, remain united and stay focused on long-term priorities
Stand by me: Why EU trade actions need member-state consensus
Since Donald Trump’s re-election, the EU has been remarkably active on the trade scene. The bloc’s member state capitals must commit to future deals to ensure that talks are followed by implementation
From niche innovations to global powerhouse: An EU quantum strategy
Quantum technologies are transforming the global economic and security landscape, and the EU has much to gain. But without decisive action to address funding gaps and coordination challenges, its leadership potential may remain unrealised
The purpose of sanctions: Why Europe and America should begin lifting measures on Syria
Europeans and Americans should work closely together on a staged sanctions lifting process. They must connect this to respect for human rights and the holding of elections
Open trade, open minds: Why opposing the Mercosur trade deal would hurt the EU
An agreement between the EU and the Mercosur trade bloc promises an 800-million-person market and reduced tariffs. Yet political fears in Europe threaten to derail the landmark deal, jeopardising global alliances and the EU’s position as a leader in multilateral trade
Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry
Northvolt’s near-collapse demonstrates why the EU needs an economic security doctrine to identify where in the battery supply chain Europe can create winners – and then go all-in for success. If Europe continues down the same path, its battery industry will hit a wall
Podcasts
Tariffs, tensions, and trade: Trump’s gamble on China
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Trump’s tariff bombshell: Rewriting the rules of global trade
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais to unpack Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and their seismic impact on the global economy
Europe vs. Trump: Deterrence or escalation?
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and José Ignacio Torreblanca to explore Europe’s leverage against Donald Trump’s economic and technological coercion
A fragmented world: Europe’s geoeconomic dilemmas
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction to meet the geoeconomic challenges of today
China’s trade challenges for the European economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to discuss EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and the potential for future economic sanctions
A vision for the future: Adapting Europe’s single market
Mark Leonard welcomes Enrico Letta to discuss the future of Europe’s single market
Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
De-risking and its impact on the global economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Stephen Adams to discuss de-risking and its impact on Europe and the global economy
Digital empires: The global battle to regulate technology
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford to discuss her new book “Digital Empires” and the race between China, the US, and the EU to regulate tech companies and the digital economy
The Great Reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their economic cooperation with Ivan Rogers
In this fifth episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Ivan Rogers about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
Events
18 Mar
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
Il dinner, in forma riservata e organizzato con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, avrà luogo in inglese (no traduzione simultanea), secondo…
4 Mar
CHINA-EU RELATIONS IN A TRUMPIAN WORLD
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi…
25 Feb
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia…
14 Nov
Sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict scenario
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
2 Jul
Economic Security 2.0: What is the EU’s next geoeconomics game plan?
As the European Union sets its new agenda, this webinar will delve into geoeconomics-related priorities for the incoming European Commission. Drawing on two new ECFR…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
11 Jun
Sanctions, contrôles aux exportations, tarifs douaniers… Comment “Trump-proofer” l’économie européenne ? A Black Coffee Morning
À seulement six mois de l’élection présidentielle américaine de novembre, les Européens s’efforcent de se préparer à une possible réélection de Donald Trump. Dans le domaine…
28 May
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
In the media
Tobias Gehrke on the fractured response of European member states following Trump’s trade tariffs
There is a major opportunity for transport, energy and construction firms to expand their markets
Alberto Rizzi on the economic opportunities deriving from the development of Euro-Asian trade
For now, the risk of EU states acting in random order seems not to be there. Instead, what Trump is doing with the tariffs is having a compacting effect for the EU
