Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis
Three features of today’s unordered world are converging to create a devastating food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine is disrupting agricultural exports from both…
European Security
Bonus episode: The EU enlargement game
In a special episode recorded live from Lisbon, Jessica Hendrick puts six EU candidate countries through an enlargement simulation to find out what happens when crisis, cash, disinformation and political pressure collide with the race to join the EU
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
NATO’s digital arsenal: How Europe can avoid a new dependence on America
AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence
The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement
A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
European defence after the NATO summit
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Is Europe’s support for Ukraine changing as the war goes on?
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of the continent. How…
Publications
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement
A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive
Europeans must urgently implement a “fast energy” programme to speed up access to energy to power AI—and remain competitive in the world
From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time has come for them to fight back
Accelerate the accessions: Why faster is better in EU enlargement policy
The Ukraine war has revived EU enlargement for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, but they face obstacles. Accelerating membership for these frontrunners would unlock the process before rivals can take advantage
Occupational therapy: Frozen conflicts, Russian aggression and EU enlargement
As Russia accelerates its annexation of “frozen conflict” regions, the EU must enhance its policy to counter Moscow’s influence
Articles
Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis
Three features of today’s unordered world are converging to create a devastating food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine is disrupting agricultural exports from both…
NATO’s digital arsenal: How Europe can avoid a new dependence on America
AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
Behind the curve: Britain’s defence investment plan in Trump’s world
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change
Twin track: How to move Ukraine’s EU accession along
The lifting of the Hungarian veto opens up new opportunities for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
Code, clouds, satellite: The defence layer Europe should not outsource
As Europe rearms, the real vulnerability is not on tanks or missiles but the software and networks behind them. The union can import weapons. It cannot afford to outsource the digital systems that make modern military power possible
The battle for the mind: How Europe can stay safe in the cognitive threat era
Under a barrage of cognitive warfare, European governments need institutions designed to interpret threats, coordinate responses and act fast
Romania’s government collapse is a trap with no easy exit
Ilie Bolojan’s toppling in a no-confidence vote has exposed Romania’s fiscal and political insecurities. Rebuilding the country’s pro-European coalition could bring stability, but at the expense of further populist backsliding over the long term
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and forge new defence partnerships
Podcasts
Bonus episode: The EU enlargement game
In a special episode recorded live from Lisbon, Jessica Hendrick puts six EU candidate countries through an enlargement simulation to find out what happens when crisis, cash, disinformation and political pressure collide with the race to join the EU
European defence after the NATO summit
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Is Europe’s support for Ukraine changing as the war goes on?
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of the continent. How…
Why Europeans are readier than you think to defend themselves
Public support for stronger European defence is at its highest level in years. But can European leaders translate this momentum into lasting policy change?…
The crucial role of Article 5: Can NATO hold without US leadership?
Europe’s security architecture is undergoing profound change. As the US reassesses its global priorities and questions grow over the future of transatlantic security, European…
How a Le Pen or Bardella presidency could divide Europe further
France is in a pivotal political moment. The prospect of the country electing a far-right president in 2027 raises profound questions for the future…
What the Iran war means for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine, from US support to shifting European unity
How to defend Ukraine after a ceasefire
Mark Leonard welcomes Jennifer Kavanagh to talk about Ukraine’s security architecture and the consequences of a US foreign policy that deprioritises Europe
Lessons from the Greenland crisis
Mark Leonard welcomes Tiago Antunes and Jim O’Brien to unpack what the Greenland crisis means for Europe and the transatlantic alliance
The diplomatic minefield: What now for Ukraine?
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Eric Ciaramella and Jana Kobzova to discuss the development and its implications
Events
15
May
European Security
Кой ще защити Европа: Отговори от Париж и София
Вход свободен. Със задължителна регистрация. ЗАПИШЕТЕ СЕ Осигурен симултанен превод френски/български Посолството на Франция, Френският институт в България и Европейският съвет за външна политика представят конференция-дискусията „Кой ще защити Европа: Отговори от Париж и София. Диалог между Мюриел Доменак, бивш посланик на Франция в НАТО и Весела Чернева, заместник-директор на Европейския съвет за външна…
22
Apr
European Power
THE BRIDGE Italy – Poland Strategic Forum “A committed partnership: politics and economy between the Baltic and the Mediterranean”
Il 22 aprile, l’Ambasciata della Repubblica di Polonia a Roma, il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale della Repubblica Italiana e il Ministero degli Affari Esteri della Repubblica di Polonia, in collaborazione con The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs e European Council on Foreign Relations, hanno organizzato l’evento “THE BRIDGE Italy –…
26
Mar
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
27
Nov
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Demografia e Competizione Internazionale: Il ruolo dell’Europa nel mondo di domani
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR è la transizione demografica, che pone l’Italia e l’Europa di fronte a una sfida esistenziale per il loro futuro sulla scena globale. Un continente sempre più anziano e con un saldo demografico negativo rischia concretamente di retrocedere a una posizione secondaria nei nuovi equilibri economici…
6
Nov
European Power
Oltre l’Emergenza: Italia e Minacce Ibride tra Crisi Immediata e Rischio Sistemico
Nel contesto internazionale segnato da una crescente competizione sistemica, le minacce ibride rappresentano oggi una delle sfide più complesse per la sicurezza nazionale ed europea. L’incontro intende promuovere un confronto tra istituzioni, think tank e settore privato per analizzare la natura multivettoriale e sistemica di tali minacce, e individuare strategie di contrasto e strumenti…
20
Oct
European Power
Closed-door Round-Table – Addressing hybrid threats in Europe: Critical infrastructure and the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean
L’evento si è svolto nell’ambito del Festival della Diplomazia, della Presidenza polacca del Consiglio degli Stati del Mar Baltico e della Presidenza danese del Consiglio dell’Unione Europea. Tra i partner: Ambasciata di Polonia a Roma; Ambasciata di Estonia a Roma; Ambasciata di Danimarca a Roma; Presidenza polacca del Consiglio degli Stati del…
14
Oct
European Security
Preventing War in Europe: Swift Action for Peace
Europe is confronting a rapidly changing security landscape amid growing global instability. Witha major conflict unfolding in its centre and various emerging nearby, it is more important thanever for European leaders, policymakers, and experts to engage in strategic, forward-thinkingdialogue on how to tackle these pressing security challenges across different national contexts.The event explored Europe’s…
13
Oct
16
Sep
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – Rise to the Challengers: rivoluzione della politica estera europea?
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sono i cosiddetti partiti europei Challengers, ovvero i partiti populisti in ascesa in UE, dalla destra alla sinistra. Tali attori politici stanno progressivamente “scuotendo” il mainstream della politica estera europea, acquisendo sempre più influenza nello scacchiere europeo ed internazionale. Il loro modus operandi, amplificato dal sostegno politico fornito…
In the media
Teresa Coratella on how Roberto Vannacci is exploiting the false nexus between Italy’s support to Ukraine and Italy’s economic performance
