Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Relations between Moldova and Transnistria seem to be losing some of their traditional hostility. But, if Russia is in a hurry to achieve a public relations victory in Moldova, Chisinau will find it difficult to make progress in talks with the Transnistrian authorities.
The EU should learn from Moldova’s response to its gas crisis. It would be a mistake to link Russian concessions on energy prices to talks in areas such as trade policy.
By reforming the Eastern Partnership, the EU can capitalise on the huge opportunities for economic and social development created by digitalisation
The EU’s success is mixed in generating reform among Eastern Partnership countries. But patience and self-confidence remain its best bet for the future.
Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states
However uncertain the road ahead, these protests show how authoritarianism ultimately subverts itself
While many Western observers have seized on Ukraine's 2004-5 and 2014 revolutions to understand the mass protests in Belarus, a much better analogy is Armenia's democratic transition in 2018.
The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.
A new mass civic movement has emerged in Belarus – the EU should put supporting it at the heart of its new policy towards the country