Beijing and Moscow are unlikely to rush to each other’s aid during a military escalation, be it in Ukraine or over Taiwan. But the enabling environment of their mutual diplomatic support matters greatly.
The EU cannot play a direct military role in Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine. But, through its support for Ukraine in the digital realm, the union can establish itself as a leader in global tech geopolitics.
The current US administration might be the last one that sees itself as a European power. As the Munich Security Conference 2022 showed, Europeans will need to do far more to shape the rules of engagement between states.
The measure of Germany’s credibility is not only in polite compliance with the geopolitical course set by the US. It also lies in actively shaping this course and leading the EU in a responsible manner.
Across Europe, national attitudes toward the Russian threat against Ukraine reflect a broad array of concerns and historical experiences. Yet underlying Europeans’ differences are key shared interests that they are increasingly willing to defend.
Russia still hopes to force Ukraine to accept its interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There is no evidence that it has abandoned the idea of achieving this through a large-scale military offensive.
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
To prevent catastrophic wars, European states should concentrate on stabilising the West’s accomplishments and defending them against the revisionist policies of Russia in Europe and China in Asia
Russia’s ambition to draw up a new international security architecture extends to regions where the US and its European allies have traditionally taken a leading role
Heightened conflict in Ukraine could have serious consequences for European interests in the Middle East and North Africa. It could further disrupt energy supplies, exacerbate food insecurity, and help states in the region gain leverage over the US and Europe.