Wartime mindset: Russia’s terror in Sumy requires a targeted European response

Problem

On April 13th, two Russian ballistic missiles struck Sumy in northern Ukraine, killing 35 people and injuring 117. This attack, the deadliest in Ukraine so far this year, came after one on Kryvyi Rih—a city far from active front lines—which killed 20 people, including nine children. Despite Ukraine responding positively to America’s proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire, Russia has openly refused to halt its attacks.

Russia’s current strategy, though seemingly contradictory given ongoing ceasefire talks, is designed to showcase its ruthless commitment to Ukraine’s destruction. Vladimir Putin remains determined to escalate the war on the frontline—where Russian forces are making slow and costly advances—and through terror against civilians, which will pressure the US to push Ukraine into making concessions “to stop the killing”.

In this scenario, Europe—and particularly those countries on NATO’s eastern flank—face heightened danger. The more Russian terror escalates, the more likely the US will view a ceasefire imposed on Russia’s terms as acceptable. This gives Moscow time to regroup, rearm and eventually pose a renewed threat which goes beyond Ukraine and directly to NATO.

Solution

Europeans must now take three decisive steps:

1. They need to accept that Putin has no intention of agreeing to a ceasefire or ending the war in Ukraine. European leaders must therefore maintain a wartime mindset, avoiding illusions of an imminent peace, and base their defence planning on the assumption of a protracted conflict. This requires sustained military and financial commitments, such as the long-term allocation of resources and the confiscation of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s defence efforts.
2. Second, European policymakers need to persuade their American counterparts that Russia’s current posture is yet another strategic bluff. Russia’s greatest asset is not its alliances with China, Iran, or North Korea, but rather the West’s fear of escalation and persistent myths regarding Russian military strength. The EU should caution the US administration against falling into this trap and instead impose “deadly sanctions” to pressure Putin to stop the terror.
3. Third, Europeans need to commit to a concrete security framework for Ukraine while the war continues at high intensity. This should involve conducting a European capability assessment to ensure it is mobilised for Ukraine’s defence effort, rather than placing the burden on America, which also specifies where US support for defence is indispensable. This is the only realistic approach that might gain traction with Trump, who is questioning why the US should provide Europe with certain systems or protection which it already possesses.

Context

The strikes in Sumy coincided with Palm Sunday. They hit civilians directly in the streets, in their cars, on public transport, and in their homes. Russia used ballistic missiles packed with cluster munitions, releasing multiple explosive submunitions over wide areas. This form of indiscriminate shelling is especially dangerous for civilians and prohibited under international humanitarian law—which still applies, despite neither Russia nor Ukraine being a signatory of the Convention on Cluster Munitions.

The strikes provided no military advantage for Russia, which instead aims to demoralise Ukrainian society and pressure Trump into forcing Ukraine into unconditional capitulation. It is also a tool to destabilise Ukraine from within: the more Ukrainians that Russia kills, the louder the internal calls for peace, which shakes national unity and Ukrainian resolve. These foundations have kept Ukraine standing over three years of war, despite early predictions that the country would fall within days.