Twin track: How to move Ukraine’s EU accession along

The lifting of the Hungarian veto opens up new opportunities for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession

Policy alert
President Of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy During A Large Summary Press Conference In Kyiv
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine is answering questions from journalists during a large summary press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on 19 December, 2023
Image by picture alliance / NurPhoto | Maxym Marusenko
©

Problem

Hungary has lifted its veto of formal negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU. Now, the core challenge shifts to the massive scale of implementing reforms in Ukraine. Kyiv must complete its overhaul of the judiciary, anti-corruption institutions and economy while fighting an existential war. Ukraine has demonstrated commitment to keeping EU integration high on its agenda despite the conflict, but it has made uneven progress. Moldova has proved more agile in implementing reforms—as confirmed by last year’s European Commission enlargement report—yet it still faces limited institutional capacity and severe hybrid pressures. The inherent risk is that the traditional, lengthy EU accession process could lead to reform fatigue and political disillusionment in both Ukraine and Moldova. The candidate countries in the Western Balkans have long witnessed a stalled accession process, which failed to encourage reform.

Solution

To maintain reform momentum, the EU must establish a clear timeline for concluding negotiations, provided both countries successfully deliver on their reform commitments. To accelerate the overall process, the EU and Ukraine could immediately establish an ad hoc working party and begin drafting the accession agreement. In this way, discussions regarding technical safeguards and transition periods can proceed in parallel with the implementation of reforms and the closing of negotiation chapters. This shift from consecutive steps to simultaneous progress would save critical time, providing constant incentives and ensuring the accession process remains highly credible if the reforms are implemented. Kyiv, in particular, is calling for even more creative models that would allow Ukraine to advance faster, especially as part of the settlement process.

Context

This shift to a merit-based, accelerated approach comes after a period of significant political deadlock. Negotiations between the EU and Ukraine were blocked by Viktor Orban’s veto, making Moldova, whose accession path is coupled with Ukraine’s, a collateral victim. The new government in Hungary last week struck a deal with Ukraine on minority issues, which was previously a major concern for Budapest. This new agreement paved the way for Ukraine to start accession talks and ensures Hungarian support in future negotiations. Now, as the negotiations are formally launched, the EU will officially take stock of Ukraine’s and Moldova’s progress. The opening of the “fundamentals” cluster, with the likely opening of other clusters later this year, creates a new impetus for reforms. With the political roadblocks cleared, the test now moves to the hard work of institutional integration.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.

Author

Senior Policy Fellow

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