Seek deeper: Signs of China’s changing strategy towards European societies

The deputy rector of Ruse University in northern Bulgaria must have been really proud when Huawei awarded scholarships to five of her students. But they were not alone. The Chinese telecoms firm is accelerating its scholarship programme in the country: since the scheme began five years ago, close to 500 people have taken part, from nearly every Bulgarian university.

Yet, this is only one aspect of Chinese presence in the country. In fact, this particular effort now likely forms just one part of a whole mutually supportive ecosystem of activity. A multitude of actors, levels and constituencies are involved.

Huawei has been implementing an ambitious programme of new agreements with higher education institutions. It is equipping universities with labs and is assisting tech hubs. At school and kindergarten level, the company is offering “digital classrooms” and STEM programmes under the brand “Smart Education”.

To little fanfare, Huawei is now further expanding its activities and enlarging its constituency base. It is going beyond education: its infrastructure is embedded in numerous “smart systems” across the country: city CCTV monitoring, transport, energy, urban infrastructure and waste management. At ministerial level, Huawei is signing memorandums of understanding to conduct digital skills programmes. The firm is also venturing into “digital leadership support” for women, both in Bulgaria and across Europe.

There have long been ties between the Chinese authorities and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, but more broadly China is strengthening its political outreach to two significant parties which are now in the Bulgarian government. Chinese authorities have all but replaced the Sofia Confucius Institute with an active and expansive Chinese cultural centre. The country’s cultural presence has also entered kindergartens through language courses. Elsewhere, in agriculture, various joint product development projects by Chinese and Bulgarian firms are under implementation. Chinese companies are presently entering the auto parts sector in the country after years of stalling. And a prominent media outlet hosts Chinese official daily news updates. Beijing is additionally working to get closer to local authorities and communities: recently, the embassy declared it would open a “Chinese culture corner” in the tiny town of Elin Pelin, population 6,849 people.

China appears to be moving on from its strategy of focusing on elites and key actors

A transformation is taking place. China appears to be moving on from its strategy of focusing on elites and key actors towards pursuing a strategy intent on engaging horizontally, and with an ever wider range of entities and actors. It is adopting an approach which complements a state-based strategy with a society-based one.

Notably, the company is rolling out its new approach in pretty exposed territory in Europe. Across the European Union, success is patchy when it comes to countering 5G penetration, protecting critical infrastructure, and implementing key provisions and risk prevention measures. There remains little overall transparency and information about the penetration of Chinese vendors in EU telecoms networks. Indeed, Bulgaria lags on the commitments it has made on 5G, both at the EU level and in bilateral cooperation with the United States. Since signing a “Clean Network” 5G security memorandum with Washington, Sofia has done very little to implement its commitments.

The EU’s persistent strategic ambivalence towards China, uneven political focus on the matter and the non-binding nature of most of its policies have all encouraged a certain flabbiness of response. The United States’ engagement on systematically countering these risks has also been hit and miss. Within Bulgaria, China has not featured prominently in security debates, in part due to national political gridlock over the last four years.

Naturally, the online space is also a battlefield, and here too there are signs of greater joined-up Chinese action. Data released by the online analysis firm Graphika reveals that the international hype around the Chinese AI company DeepSeek was no organic wave of impressed audiences. The analysis details the process of coordinated planting and amplifying of narratives about the purported dominance of the US and the West. The campaign was implemented by dozens of social media accounts on X, Facebook, Instagram, Weibo and influencers. An earlier precursor of such an approach was the online influence campaign on YouTube conducted by Chinese actors in 2023, detailed by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. It is probably not surprising, then, that the first wave of enthusiasm for DeepSeek entirely overlooked the security risks involved in using the application. And immediately after its release, the company’s founder headed to a meeting with the prime minister, Li Qiang, among other state representatives. The occasion was used to declare, yet again, the priority given by the authorities to the development of AI. Within days, all three major Chinese telecoms operators had integrated DeepSeek’s model into their services. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has held it up as a symbol of China’s economic rejuvenation. 

The extent of this recalibration of approach towards countries such as Bulgaria requires further attention, including deeper analysis conducted against a larger data set, and across more European countries. Things are visibly changing. Europeans should watch carefully for further shifts in Chinese statecraft.