Regional roots, global decisions: Andy Burnham’s foreign policy challenge

Within a few weeks, Britain will have a new prime minister. Andy Burnham, who was recently elected as an MP following nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester, looks set to take over without competition following Keir Starmer’s announcement that he would step down from the role.

Burnham has wide support among Labour MPs who think he represents the best hope of reviving the party’s popularity and seeing off the populist-nationalist Reform UK party in Britain’s next election. However, his recent experience in regional politics and his sudden ascent to become prime minister-in-waiting mean that Burnham’s approach to domestic policy is much clearer than his approach to foreign affairs. Domestically, as prime minister, he is likely to focus above all on spreading power and opportunity across Britain’s regions and communities.

Nevertheless, to achieve both his aim of inclusive regeneration and to protect the country’s security, Burnham needs to make some fundamental choices about Britain’s place in the world. It is possible to anticipate at least some of how he is likely to approach Britain’s international role. While Burnham is likely to continue with Starmer’s current approach to crisis management, the pressure of global trends and his political instincts could push him to set out a clearer picture of Britain’s partnerships, with a greater emphasis on Europe and middle powers.

Burnham’s vision of renewal

In Burnham’s set-piece speech on Monday, he presented the vision that he said will guide his leadership of Britain. He sees the defining goal of his premiership as restoring the British people’s trust in government by making it deliver better for all parts of the country. Some of his policy ambitions continue in the broad direction pursued by Starmer and chancellor Rachel Reeves: a focus on industrial strategy, the pursuit of greater self-sufficiency in key sectors essential for national security, encouraging innovation, directing public procurement towards domestic production, encouraging inward investment in Britain and tackling the shortage of affordable housing.

Burnham has said less about the foreign policy questions that have taken up much of Starmer’s time as prime minister, including Ukraine, the Middle East, relations with Donald Trump’s America and China. He will likely emphasise that he is prioritising domestic affairs, in contrast to Starmer who sometimes seemed more comfortable dealing with global issues than difficult domestic choices (and was mocked by critics as “never here Keir”). This might make Burnham inclined to appoint a relatively senior politician as foreign secretary who could carry out some high-profile diplomatic commitments on his behalf.

Aligned on foreign affairs

In any case, British policies on Ukraine and the Middle East are likely to remain much the same, because Starmer’s positions are mainstream within the Labour Party. According to foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham is “100% behind [the UK’s] unwavering support for Ukraine” and is a fundamental believer in NATO and Britain’s multilateral partnerships. Jonathan Powell, Starmer’s influential national security adviser who played a key role in these areas, will likely stay on at least until the end of the year. Although Burnham has occasionally sounded more critical of Israel’s war in Gaza—he called for a ceasefire in October 2023, two months before Starmer—there is little reason to expect any significant change in policy.

Burnham is pro-European (and has a Dutch wife) and said in 2025 that he hoped Britain would rejoin the EU in his lifetime. But during the recent by-election that brought him back into parliament, held in a constituency that voted strongly for Leave in 2016, he emphasised that he was not advocating that Britain rejoin now. In the short-term, his government’s focus will be on completing the EU-UK agreements that were due to be signed at a summit meeting on July 22nd. The summit is also supposed to set a direction for the next steps in the reset process; it seems unlikely that Burnham will come into office with views that would significantly change Britain’s approach to negotiations.

For a medium-sized, open economy like Britain, prosperity, re-industrialisation and the kind of economic security that Burnham wants to focus on cannot be achieved without paying attention to international partnerships

Nevertheless, despite Burnham’s likely intention to broadly preserve Starmer’s foreign policy and to focus on domestic issues, he will have to answer big questions about Britain’s international role. For a medium-sized, open economy like Britain, prosperity, re-industrialisation and the kind of economic security that Burnham wants to focus on cannot be achieved without paying attention to international partnerships in areas like trade, supply chains, investment energy and technology. Britain is already overdue to develop a more defined national strategy for these sectors, for an age where the kind of rules-based international order that it once relied on (and saw itself as a guardian of) has given way to a messier and more uncertain world.

Finding Britain’s global place

While Starmer played a strong role in supporting Ukraine and building security coalitions with other European countries, he did not set out a compelling wider vision of how Britain should position itself and its interests in a challenging global context. Burnham, however, is well placed to take on this task. His commitment to inclusive growth at home pairs well with a revised view of how Britain works internationally: he could set out a vision of internationalism for Britain that is rooted in the needs and aspirations of communities across the country, in line with the goal of regional regeneration that he espoused.

To do that, however, he will have to take some decisions about Britain’s international partnerships and affiliations, and how they relate to each other.

Given the alignment in Britain’s interests and the extent of its links with Europe, its relationship with the EU must be at the centre of foreign policy. The idea of a closer relationship with Europe is increasingly popular and, at a time when the US has become unreliable as a partner, presents the best foundation for promoting British security and prosperity. Whatever institutional form it ultimately takes, Burnham could set a more explicitly political vision of Britain’s role in Europe as a central element in navigating a complex and uncertain world.

Alongside this, he will need to create a balance between Britain and the US that preserves the benefits of cooperation but gives Britain greater ability to withstand pressure. Central to this will be technology and particularly AI—a subject that was surprisingly absent from Burnham’s speech, but which ministers within Starmer’s government are thinking about. Some in Labour circles expect Burnham to adopt a less deferential approach to Trump than Starmer pursued, at least until the US-Israeli attack on Iran this year.

Beyond the traditional transatlantic relationship, Burnham will need to determine how Britain acts towards increasingly influential emerging and middle powers. Here, it may be significant that Lord Jim O’Neill, a former Treasury official and economist for Goldman Sachs, has emerged as one of Burnham’s key economic advisers. O’Neill coined the acronym “BRICS” and argues strongly for including non-Western powers in global economic management. Most relevantly, he has proposed that rethinking traditional Western economic models goes hand-in-hand with greater engagement with non-Western countries that have different political-economic models.

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Britain’s G20 presidency in 2027 could be the perfect opportunity for Burnham to set out an ambitious vision of how international economic cooperation can benefit the populations of all countries. At the same time, Burnham should confront the trade-off between global cooperation and sustainability, and the risks of dependency, de-industrialisation and vulnerability to coercion. China will bring these trade-offs into sharp relief, making it among the defining strategic questions of Burnham’s premiership.