Radev’s way: What Europe can expect from Bulgaria’s new political constellation

Bulgaria’s future government

Bulgarian voters have ended five years of political fragmentation by overwhelmingly backing Progressive Bulgaria’s Rumen Radev, who has pledged to keep the country on its pro-European Union path. However, Radev has reserved the right to criticise EU decisions: some of his past statements raise concerns that Europe may be witnessing the emergence of a new Viktor Orban-style leader, with pro-Russia tendencies.

Radev won 44% of the vote by running on an anti-corruption platform. And, by capitalising on Bulgaria’s December 2025 protests, he succeeded in convincing voters that he—rather than the protest leaders—would dismantle the entrenched model associated with pre-2021 prime minister Boyko Borissov and Magnitsky-sanctioned power broker Delyan Peevski.

By speaking out against rising prices linked to Bulgaria’s eurozone accession, Radev has also tapped into widespread economic anxieties. But now Radev, who is likely to be able to form a government on his own, will have to deliver domestically and in Europe. The electorate has high expectations that the new leader will tackle corruption and stabilise Bulgaria’s political system.

Radev and the EU

In his relations with the EU, Radev will be closer to Slovakia’s Robert Fico than Hungary’s recently ousted prime minister Orban. He is ready to criticise the European Commission, especially on its energy policy and the Green Deal, and he will be tough on minority rights within the enlargement context (with North Macedonia and Serbia as cases in point).

But Radev will generally not attempt to block big EU decisions on Ukraine or elsewhere. He will also need to demonstrate that he can effectively negotiate for, and absorb, EU funds, which are critical for Bulgaria’s economy and for alleviating domestic pressure on households.

A former air force pilot, Radev is also likely to prioritise military modernisation and the strengthening of defence capabilities—especially at a time when Europe is increasing its defence spending. ECFR polls suggest he might enjoy support for such measures. However, delivering on this agenda will require close cooperation with EU partners, particularly to access instruments such as Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans, and with NATO.

These trends are likely to define the initial phase of Radev’s tenure—but if he stays in post, the EU should consider that Bulgarian institutions are susceptible to capture, and that the winner of any sizeable majority will be tempted to use this for their own benefit. Brussels does have instruments through which it can monitor any attempts by leaders to establish networks, à la Orban, through manipulating the media and the judiciary.

Tying the multiannual financial framework to rule-of-law conditionality gives the EU leverage to support a reform of Bulgaria’s judiciary, win back captured state institutions and defend the interests of citizens.

Less fragmentation, more stability

Rumen Radev has won Bulgaria’s eighth election since 2021 on an anti-corruption and economic platform. The incoming parliament will be less fragmented, with a significant decline in representation for parties associated with Borissov. The new majority signals an end to the prolonged political fragmentation that has hindered the formation of stable governments in Bulgaria.

Radev is not a new political figure, however. Since 2017, he has used the Bulgarian presidency as a platform to communicate directly with citizens, especially during crises like covid-19, the war in Ukraine and the energy shock. Crucially, the former president did not have to take any difficult decisions and was therefore generally isolated from criticism. But as prime minister, Radev will have to take sides on day-to-day political matters—in times of economic difficulty, this will inevitably tarnish his popularity.

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Supported (in part) by a grant from the Open Society Foundations.