Questions of sovereignty: Canada’s relations with Europe after the general election

The problem

Europe faces an unstable geopolitical landscape, and can no longer trust the United States. Yet to defend its values and the rules-based order, it needs partners. Canada has long been an afterthought for Europeans, and vice versa. However, threats coming from the Trump administration have shaken up Canadian politics and strategic considerations. Canada now wants to be more of a leader, and it sees Europe as a source of reliable allies. Europe needs a new strategy for a closer alliance with Canada.

The solution

Mark Carney’s election victory this week is an opportunity for Europeans to engage more deeply with Ottawa—on trade, energy, Ukraine and broader transatlantic security, including in the Arctic.

Like Canada, Europe needs to diversify its trade. It also needs new sources of energy, ideally clean energy. Canada is a resource-rich state, it is developing its green industrial strategy and it is positioning itself as a key supplier of critical minerals. Moreover, Canada is keen to continue supporting Ukraine and improve security in the Arctic, where its interests are most strongly aligned with European Arctic states.

The new prime minister’s worldview is clearly multilateralist and pro-European. On his first official trip, before the snap election, Carney came to Europe and declared that Canada is “the most European of non-European countries”. In one of his first calls in office, he spoke to President Volodymyr Zelensky. There was no such momentum under his predecessor Justin Trudeau; nor was the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre focused on Europe.

Given this opportunity, both sides should immediately begin looking for new ways to enhance Europe-Canada cooperation.

The context

Since President Donald Trump’s return and Trudeau’s resignation, Canada has experienced a staggering political awakening. The snap election of 28 April took place following the “American betrayal”: Trump’s tariff war and threats to make Canada the 51^st American state. While in January all polls indicated the next Canadian government would be Conservative, Carney secured a fourth term for the Liberals.

Carney has a strong network in Europe from his time as governor of the Bank of England. He has gained trust and credibility that matters. Importantly, he is keen to focus on Europe and he wants to diversify his country’s economy away from the US.

As part of this, Canada’s energy policy is quickly evolving. Its natural and energy resources are immense, but when Europe needed new energy sources following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Canada could not deliver. LNG exports were stymied by a lack of export infrastructure and domestic political barriers (especially resistance from Quebec) to building pipelines and terminals. Those barriers are now falling away, while Canada is also developing clean hydrogen and sustainable fuels.

Importantly, Carney promised to focus on security and raise defence spending to 2% (from 1.3% currently). Canada has long supported Ukraine, and will certainly stay the course, especially as now it is clear even Canadian sovereignty cannot be taken for granted. It appears determined to support allies fighting for independence, and to strengthen links and interoperability with NATO allies, should Canada itself need help in its Arctic territories in the future.