Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate

Problem

In a nighttime raid on June 8th, Ukrainian forces claim to have damaged two Russian fighter jets on an airfield deep inside Russia. This follows two special intelligence operations a week earlier—called “Operation Spiderweb”—which saw Ukrainian drones eliminate 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, and damage Kerch bridge which connects occupied Crimea to Russia. Russia, on the other hand, has continued to barrage Ukraine with deadly drone and missile attacks.

While Russia’s tactics remain unchanged, Ukraine’s strategy, which focused purely on military targets, is likely to significantly weaken Russia’s military capabilities. The operations occurred just days after Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul for fraught ceasefire talks and underscore Kyiv’s determination to shape the negotiations in its favour. Its destruction of a third of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers—achieved without Ukraine itself possessing nuclear weapons—has dealt a significant blow to Russia’s nuclear triad, for example, not to mention embarrassment to Russia’s military power projection.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian weaponry is adding significantly to the cost of the conflict for Russia. The destruction of the carriers alone caused around $7bn worth of damage. While Ukraine’s actions have not yet compelled Russia to engage in a genuine ceasefire process, a growing war bill and a weakened military stockpile will help pile on the pressure.

Solution

Ukraine’s European partners should therefore capitalise on the momentum to robustly support Kyiv’s decisive actions. European intervention should underscore to Moscow that Russia’s agreement to a ceasefire is in its strategic—and economic—interest.

That Ukraine’s $600 drones can destroy Russia’s war planes worth more than $100m each should prompt Europeans to go beyond the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative and more fully invest in Ukraine’s defence industry: Ukraine’s operations have shown Europeans they can get a lot of bang for their buck.

Ukraine’s defence production capacity reached $35bn in 2025, yet Kyiv can only afford to contract around $11.5bn, leaving much of its manufacturing potential untapped. Unlocking frozen Russian assets, which are currently stuck in political deadlock in Europe, would allow Ukraine to sustain these asymmetric successes.

Beyond financial support, Ukraine’s European partners must pressure US Congress to pass the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, which brings tougher economic measures. The EU’s adoption of the 17th sanctions package brought the total number of sanctioned vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” to 350, leaving Russia’s oil exports—the main external source of funding for its military—largely untouched. Severing this revenue stream would force Moscow to rethink its war plans.

Context

Ukraine’s observers and allies have called Operation Spiderweb, which highlighted Ukraine’s precise and secretive military execution and Russia’s vulnerability, as a “marvel”. Despite Russian officials’ statements that “retaliation” would soon follow, it is unlikely to significantly alter the dynamics between the two sides. Russia, which has long relied on mass combined drone and missile attacks targeting civilians, has little left in its arsenal short of nuclear weapons—a move that remains unlikely given China’s disapproval.