Eurovisionary times: How the continent is learning to sing in Trump’s face

It’s an odd moment for Europeans to sing a Bur Man Laimi (“chant of happiness” in Latvian) at this year’s Eurovision song contest. After all, for its leaders and citizens alike, the four months since the return of Donald Trump to the White House have felt like a bad dream.

Watching Trump turn his back on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, impose tariffs on most of the world, and claim the EU was created to “screw over the US,” many on this side of the pond were suddenly asking how this could have happened and where a Trumpian world will leave them. As many Europeans downgrade their view of America, the transatlantic relationship is at its most fragile and least cooperative in decades.

And yet, on this year’s Europe Day—and especially under the strobe lights of the song contest—Europeans have reasons to feel confident; perhaps even to celebrate.

In a Trumpian world

Some have already put themselves in a festive mood.  “It’s often easier to see your own strengths in somebody else’s mirror,” Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, recently observed. She intoned her own ode to Europe: “You can make money anywhere in the world. But where do you want to raise your children? Where do you want to be if your health isn’t great, when you get older, when you might need help from the community?”.

So far, the “Trump shock” has turned out to be a sobering and empowering experience for the continent. European governments and institutions have shown assertiveness: preparing countermeasures against American tariffs, advancing plans for peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, and defending European values against attacks by hard-right libertarians like US vice president J.D Vance.  

At the same time, they have kept their nerve, avoiding harmful fragmentation on the one hand and unnecessary escalation on the other. Instead of reacting hastily to American tariffs, the European Commission has taken its time. Several EU member states have announced spending more money on defence; even Spain—notorious for its low defence spending—has eventually promised to catch up. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni—whose loyalty used to be doubted by many in the EU—has kept the line and proven Rome’s usefulness with its access to Trump’s ear. Meanwhile, the Polish government has contributed to Europe’s defence awakening while not losing hope to keep the transatlantic relations strong (according to the country’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, “even if America’s and Europe’s interests are not identical, there is no doubt they are convergent”).

Europe turns up the sound

The “Trump shock” has also encouraged political boldness and creativity.

European capitals didn’t feel stuck within the EU format to explore Ukraine’s peace plan; instead, a coalition of the willing was quickly born, allowing for the inclusion of the UK and the exclusion of Hungary (a country that’s not only the EU’s bête noire on Ukraine, Russia, and rule of law, but whose sins also include boycotting Eurovision). Parties of Germany’s political mainstream have managed, in time, to agree on easing the debt break, paving the way for an increased defence spending. Meanwhile, Poland and France have invested in not just rebuilding their relations after they reached a low point a few years ago, but in making them one of Europe’s central friendships. They should be signing a new bilateral treaty shortly.

The “eurovisionary” vibe of these times might not even end here, as it invites European leaders and citizens to look at the EU and NATO afresh, and to question the status quo. This could well turn out to be the moment when they rethink Europe and its institutional setting—and build a new consensus around it.

But before Europeans get carried away with thoughts about their future, plenty could still go wrong in the coming months

But before Europeans get carried away with thoughts about their future, plenty could still go wrong in the coming months: from a disastrous deal for Ukraine, to a new economic crisis, to the spread of nation-first approaches across the region. Whether any of it happens because of Trump’s America or not, it would still be read—in Europe and beyond—as proof of the continent’s weakness, and a confirmation of Trump’s and Putin’s diagnoses about the region.

A four-step

This is why the hardest part still lies ahead. It consists of four tasks.

First, European leaders must convince their more sceptical publics of the need to expand defence capabilities and ambition; this might require some sacrifice but…C’est la vie. Security isn’t free, which Europeans need to realise if they are to continue sipping Espresso macchiato like Tutta l’Italia, or heading Bara bada bastu (“let’s go sauna” in the Vörå dialect of Finnish Swedish) like the Nordics. While most European policymakers perfectly understand that, not all of them have invested sufficient efforts to make a proper case for it at home.

Second, European countries must maintain the maximum possible unity as the US likely seeks to divide the region, tempting individual EU members with trade and security carrots, luring the UK with privileged relations, and meddling in their domestic politics. For the time being at least, the latter tends to produce some counter-effects. It puts Trump’s political allies in Europe in an uncomfortable position thanks to general disapproval of the US president. This is reinforced by some voters’ move back to the centre in response to economic and security fears, and their appreciation of more assertive leaders, like Macron or Starmer. But, with the war in Ukraine far from over, the economic picture cloudy, and some US-based social media playing a political game in Europe, mainstream parties should avoid premature optimism. Let’s see where things stand after the competitive presidential elections in Romania and Poland later this month.

Third, while this might seem like an ambition for calmer times, European leaders must stay faithful to the liberal and democratic ideals Europe claims to embody. The world is watching carefully whether the continent can offer anything better than America, China, and Russia, and therefore where it’s soft power stands. These are the additional stakes in how Europeans approach Recep Erdogan’s Turkey and Israel’s war in Gaza, in how they talk and what they do about migration, or in whether they can approve a trade deal with Mercosur.  The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas might be right that the “free world needs a new leader” but Europe is by no means pre-destined to play that role. When figuring out their strategy in a transactional world, Europeans must be careful not to compromise the very values that have helped them stand out and stick together. Israel’s participation in this year’s Eurovision, despite the country’s new offensive in Gaza, will only raise more questions over Europe’s standards.

Fourth, and above all, with Ukraine in an increasingly desperate situation, Europeans must work tirelessly to prevent the country’s collapse as a sovereign state and be prepared to do this without America’s support and even against Trump’s will. Even the best peace plans won’t mean much if Europeans can’t back their commitments and aspirations with ways to promote and defend them. This will be the ultimate litmus test of Europe’s relevance and credibility.

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It seemed that Europe has not fully recovered from the crises of the past two decades. But Trump’s second presidency has given it a new sense of mission—and offered a fresh start. So far, European leaders and citizens have handled the chaos surprisingly well.

The coming week, they deserve more than just a round of dance to the bit of Baller—they deserve the spotlight. But the next morning, it’s time to shake the glitter off. Being “united by music” is only good for starters.

This article is part of the European Sentiment Compass: a joint partnership and initiative of ECFR and the European Cultural Foundation.