Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan

Problem 

Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating after a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam in late April. The developing crisis is creating challenges for European diplomacy, in particular given its relationship with India and China.

First, Delhi is likely to judge its international partners based on whether they support India’s position or take a more neutral stance. As European leaders seek stronger diplomatic, economic and military ties with India, including a long-desired EU-India trade deal and defence exports, Brussels and EU member states need to calibrate their messaging more carefully.

Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, tried to strike a balance by condemning the initial terrorist attacks and speaking to foreign ministers on both sides to urge de-escalation. But some Indian commentators have accused Europe of perceived double standards, citing Europe’s willingness to support Ukraine against Russian aggression while not unequivocally providing the same backing for India.

Second, China’s foreign ministry has called India’s operation “regrettable” and urged both sides to refrain from actions that would “further complicate the situation”. In practice, however, China is a close partner of Pakistan and a critical supplier of military technology.

During the conflict, a Chinese-made J-10C aircraft operated by Pakistan, equipped with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, conducted its first-known air-to-air kill in live combat by shooting down a France-produced Indian Rafale. As the first fatal combat interaction of modern Chinese and European fighter jets, this event demonstrated Chinese technological advances in radar and missile capabilities. For India, it poses procurement questions; for Europe, it brings home a debate about the advanced capabilities that China is able and willing to provide for—and co-develop with—its partners, including Russia.

Solution

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has called off an upcoming three-nation tour to Europe. European leaders hope for a swift resolution and a rapid return to their recent focus on economic relations. But clearer positioning will be necessary as the crisis further escalates: Brussels will likely have to prioritise its burgeoning relationship with India over concerns about worsening ties with Pakistan. Legitimate concerns in member states relating to the attribution of terrorist activities, counterterrorism efforts and Pakistani diaspora communities will likely become secondary.

If Europe wants to promote itself as a reliable, high-tech defence supplier, while emphasising the importance of plans for a new Europe-India security and defence partnership, this comes with diplomatic choices.

Europe also needs to undertake an honest assessment of China’s new role as a provider of advanced military capabilities and key cooperation partner in joint defence industrial projects. As the strategic and military relationship between Russia and China grows ever closer, with a rise in joint military manoeuvres and defence industrial collaboration between Beijing and Moscow, the J-10C demonstration in particular foreshadows the kind of China-augmented challenges Europe might later face in its immediate neighbourhood. In light of America’s retreat from Europe, a renewed debate about European export controls and technology transfers vis-à-vis China is urgently needed.

Context 

On April 26th, Pakistan-based terrorist organisation The Resistance Front carried out a brutal attack which killed 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali tourist in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam—the deadliest on Indian civilians since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

India retaliated with “Operation Sindoor”, initially striking terrorist targets on Pakistani territory on May 7th. Pakistan then shot down incoming Indian aircraft at significant distance. The situation is further escalating with Indian counterstrikes and Pakistan allegedly responding against Indian military targets on 8th May. India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers.