Early warning sign: This week’s energy summit presages a difficult COP30

Problem

The United Kingdom hosted an International Energy Agency summit focused on energy security this week. The event brought together policymakers from 60 countries to think through securing access to energy in a way that underpins decarbonisation goals in a world framed by trade wars emanating from the United States. China—responsible for three-quarters of global investments in clean tech and over 30% of global emissions of CO2 in 2023—will be a key player in managing this global challenge. But it was not present. The US government is prioritising fossil fuels and cancelling Biden-era support for clean energy development. It sent a low-level delegation to London. This summit sent a worrying message about global commitment to decarbonisation ahead of a challenging COP meeting in Brazil in November 2025.

Solution

Close cooperation between the European Union and the UK around this summit—with Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen meeting bilaterally in the margins—highlights the fact that Europeans have strong shared interests in navigating this environment and keeping global decarbonisation efforts on course. Their responses to the transatlantic trade wars, energy sovereignty and their common interest in seeing a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine that safeguards Europeans’ security—all intersect closely with the partnerships they need for their own decarbonisation efforts. This, in turn, impacts on their credibility as climate leaders. Their leadership as a bloc—if solid and consistent enough—could prove instrumental in driving higher ambition at the COP30 meeting in Belém this autumn.

Context

This year’s COP will mark 10 years since the adoption of the Paris agreement; but it will be a challenging meeting. With global warming having surpassed 1.5 degrees since 1990s levels, and increasing evidence of climate-related disasters, the gathering risks being marked by a sense of hopelessness.

The US—which was a key driver of the COP rounds that took place during the Biden years—has, under the second Trump administration, pulled out of climate diplomacy, cancelled support for the development of clean energy, and is expected to make it more complex for even civil society to support climate action overseas.

With 80% of global solar manufacturing capacity, and over 90% of production of materials needed for lithium batteries, China is key. But, as this week’s summit shows, it is currently preoccupied with the trade war the US is waging against it.

With these major players disengaged in the run-up to COP30, a gaping hole is emerging in climate leadership. Climate diplomacy needs higher levels of ambition. Crucially, this must include updated nationally determined contributions—states’ plans to reduce their emissions in line with the targets in the Paris agreement.

Leadership from Europeans is both necessary as a global good, but also in line with the European interest—they have much to gain economically from driving the next global wave of green tech.