Dutch masters: The art of renewing the centre

Whisper it, but the Netherlands could be near the end of two years of chaotic far-right government, dominated by Geert Wilders and steered by a technocrat prime minister. This means it could also be near the end of a period of dwindling Dutch influence at the EU level.

Pro-European centrist parties are emerging as the biggest winners in the country’s October 29th election. One such party, D66, looks set to scrape a win in the popular vote, ahead of Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). This means the former’s young and charismatic leader, Rob Jetten, is best placed to try to form a government. Under him, the Netherlands would return to the European stage with an energy not seen since Mark Rutte’s leadership.

During the campaign, D66 and the CDA advocated for a coalition agreement to be finalised “as soon as possible”. In Dutch terms, this means before Christmas—and even that would be a miracle

The Christian Democrats (CDA) have also made big gains. These two moderate parties, together with the centre-right Liberals (VVD), are seeking partners to form a stable government that excludes the PVV. During the campaign, D66 and the CDA advocated for a coalition agreement to be finalised “as soon as possible”. In Dutch terms, this means before Christmas—and even that would be a miracle. Both of their options for coalition partners, Green-Left-Labour or the hard-right JA21, will mean lengthy negotiations and painful trade-offs. So, it will still be a while before that youthful vigour finds its way to Brussels.

However the coalition turns out, the new Netherlands will uphold its support for Ukraine and for higher NATO spending. Indeed, the only foreign policy issue that got serious attention during the televised debates was the new NATO target for all members to spend 3.5-5% of GDP on defence. Surprisingly, the extra €15bn needed to get to €30bn did not turn out to be controversial. All mainstream parties embrace the new norm, while the fringe parties that do not failed to make it a decisive issue during the campaign. The same was true of support for Ukraine, though JA21 opposes EU and NATO membership for the country.

Less predictable is Dutch support for joint EU borrowing through Eurobonds. The CDA and D66 support this instrument to finance the huge challenges the EU is facing; the VVD and JA21 do not. Netherlands based chipmaker, Nexperia, recently stopped chip production for China following US pressure. This geoeconomic storm did not find its way into election debates, but the episode still serves as a reminder of the coalition’s need to anchor the relatively strong Dutch technology sector within the EU.

Climate and Israel-Palestine are also thorny. As a former climate minister, Jetten will likely support European green transition goals. But in this area too, JA21 will try to curtail his ambitions. And in terms of Israel and Palestine, the issue faded somewhat in the Netherlands after the Trump-brokered ceasefire. But with the fragile deal looking shakier by the day, the topic could become hugely problematic in the coalition negotiations: again, JA21 and the VVD stand in opposition to D66, the CDA and Green-Left-Labour—notably on increasing pressure on Israel.

The resurgence of the centre after a failed far-right experiment will be closely watched in many other European countries. The positive, Obama-like messaging of Rob Jetten, combined with a public yearning for stability seems to have been decisive. Moreover, Jetten’s tone on asylum and migration hardened during the campaign, and he surprised some liberal voters when he played an explicitly nationalist card by reclaiming the Dutch flag—which had been seized by the far right. And the far right is hardly on its knees.

Just as in France, opposition to the centrist government will thus come from both left and right. Much will depend on the ability of the centre to keep its promises. But a more stable government in which coalition partners succeed in shaping joint policies, headed by a prime minister who is rooted in the wider European political system, will bring the Dutch back to the heart of Europe and the international scene in these Trumpian times.