Disdain for Ukraine: How Europeans can support Zelensky against Trump’s cuts

Problem

On March 3rd 2025, US president Donald Trump halted deliveries of American military assistance to Ukraine. For now, the move affects roughly $1bn worth of arms and ammunition, as well as intelligence sharing with Kyiv.

Growing domestic and European defence production means that Ukraine has become less dependent on US aid than in previous months and years. However, some critical capabilities—including ammunition for the PATRIOT air defence system, and long-range missiles like ATACMS and GMLRS—can only be supplied by the US or with US approval.

While the halt will not immediately lead to shortages, it will require Ukraine’s armed forces to ration munitions and successively retreat from exposed positions during spring. The situation will turn increasingly dire for both frontline troops and civilians in the medium to long term.

Solution

Europeans need to step in to prevent Ukraine’s position from deteriorating further. They must recognise that all options, including inaction and delayed action, now entail greater risks and trade-offs than before.

1. Place bulk orders for US equipment and ammunition

Europeans should use EU money to top-up the US funding streams used to draw kit from US military stocks, and retain the pipeline of deliveries from US industry. This would ensure a continual supply of goods which can only be delivered by the US or with US approval. It would also buy time for Europeans to further expand defence production to replace US aid where possible, such as artillery shells and armoured vehicles.

2. Back Zelensky’s attempt to mend fences with Trump

The meeting between Trump and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky on February 28th confirmed that team Trump exploits any opportunity to back Ukraine into a corner. Europeans should offer Zelensky as much reassurance as possible in his attempt to get the US-Ukraine minerals deal back on track—but while Trump’s address to US congress signalled an opening, it is clear Zelensky will have to play along.

3. Prepare to reestablish a European military presence Ukraine

European leaders who favour turning Ukraine into an “steel porcupine” to deter a third Russian attack are right to suggest that Ukraine’s armed forces will represent the bulk of future deterrent capability vis-à-vis the Kremlin. However, a European military presence in Ukraine would add firepower—especially in the air and potentially along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast—and provide assurance. It would also help accelerate the Ukrainian armed forces’ transformation and interoperability with NATO.

Context

Donald Trump is determined to improve relations with Russia to the detriment of traditional US allies. Shared imperial desires could facilitate joint US-Russian mineral exploitation in the Artic; little imagination is required to extend this scenario to Greenland or Ukraine. Trump’s 2017 minerals deal with Afghanistan does not inspire confidence in the credibility of his commitments.

Europeans should therefore view any support Trump offers as contingent; they can use this time to improve their and Ukraine’s position via stronger economic and defence support.

But Europe should have made deals on US-supplied goods with the Biden administration. Now they will come with a nasty (political) surcharge—or perhaps not at all. After all, even a hefty cheque might not overcome Trump’s opposition to Ukraine’s self-defence.