Discretion or disruption: The RN cannot remain so ambivalent about its foreign policy path

On 31st March, a criminal court in Paris found Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzlement of EU funds. The court sentenced Le Pen, the far-right leader of France’s National Rally (RN), to four years in prison and barred her from running for public office for five years. She is now unlikely to be able to run in the 2027 presidential election, unless she secures a more lenient judgment on appeal.

The verdict against Le Pen has reshuffled the cards for the RN. It is a major upset for a party that was increasingly confident of presidential victory in 2027, after seeing strong electoral success in 2024: in June, the RN achieved a historic European election breakthrough to become the largest party in the European Parliament, with 30 MEPs. As a result, President Emmanuel Macron scheduled a snap legislative election, meaning the RN became the best-represented party in the French National Assembly.

Le Pen’s conviction has sparked an outcry from various far-right party leaders in Europe, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders. Elsewhere, US president Donald Trump suggested that both he and Le Pen were victims of “corrupt lawfare”, while Elon Musk accused the “radical left” of “[jailing] their opponents”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Pesko also said the decision violated “democratic norms.”

While this wave of support could appear beneficial for the RN, it is in fact shaking up the party’s radically different international policy strategy—based on staying discreet and toning down their public statements amid a global surge of populism.

Strategic discretion in Europe

By the time National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen died in early 2025, his daughter had long transformed the party’s identity and image. Marine Le Pen had led the “de-demonisation” of the party’s reputation, which had been associated with racism and antisemitism, for over a decade—even renaming it as National Rally in 2018. As part of its strategy to cross the cordon sanitaire, the party also gradually mainstreamed its public approach to foreign policy.

In recent years, the RN has appeared to distance itself from its former staunchly anti-EU stance. Le Pen dropped the idea of France withdrawing from the EU and the eurozone: the party now tends to publicly promote a discourse which aligns, to some extent, with current European diplomatic interests. Here, young and popular RN president Jordan Bardella—who is also chairman of the European Parliament’s Patriots for Europe (PfE) group—comes in.

Bardella has broken with Le Pen’s previous conciliatory approach towards Russia. Even after Russia invaded Ukraine, she described sanctions against Russia as “pointless” and advocated for France to leave NATO’s integrated command. Instead, Bardella acknowledged the usefulness of “certain sanctions” and asserted that leaving NATO’s integrated command is not an option “as long as the war is still going on.”

Significantly, in the European Parliament’s committee on foreign affairs, the pro-Kremlin MEP Thierry Mariani was replaced with Bardella’s former parliamentary assistant, Pierre-Romain Thionnet. He stands up for Ukraine and denounces Putin’s lies. These moves suggest the RN has neutralised its public position on Putin, with whom the party has long-lasting ideological and political connections—but also financial ties.

A break with Trump?

In previous years, the RN has also been vocal and explicit in its support for Trump. In 2016, Le Pen was among the first to congratulate him even before his presidential victory was officially declared. Both the RN and the MAGA movement share a populist rhetoric defined by anti-establishment, “anti-wokeism”, anti-immigration, and favour a media culture driven by funding from right-wing allies.

But after Trump announced his plan to run for re-election in 2022, the RN attempted to distance itself from the Republican party and did not officially support Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign. Le Pen and Bardella moderated their responses to Trump’s re-election, in stark contrast to other far-right French (Marion Maréchal and Reconquest’s Eric Zemmour) and European (Spain’s Santiago Abascal, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Germany’s Alice Weidel) leaders.

Trump did not invite Le Pen or Bardella to his inauguration. In February, Bardella cancelled his appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference after former Trump advisor Steve Bannon made what appeared to be a far-right salute.

Furthermore, despite the last PfE meeting being under the banner “Make Europe Great Again”, Le Pen instead targeted Trump’s return as a “power challenge” for Europeans. Given Trump’s increased threat to European interests, she has warned that his declarations are not a “call for alignment” between Europe and the US.

Mainstreaming to win

RN’s cautiousness on foreign policy issues is understandable in the light of the 2027 French presidential election. Cultivating the image of a politically correct party allows it to contrast with the provocative personality of the France Unbowed (LFI) leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is infamous for his provocative stance on Russia, the US and China.

As such, its attempt to present itself as credible meant RN’s previously more Eurosceptic discourse was showing signs of transformation. Trump’s inward-looking America has prompted some RN leaders to support the idea of a French and European sovereigntist diplomacy—indeed, in one of his declarations at the European Parliament, Thionnet even paraphrased Charles De Gaulle in his calls for a non-aligned France and a European defence of Europe.

In matters of defence, RN’s June 2024 election programme called for cooperation between European states on “military industry”, but also on the “projection of military forces”—despite the RN remaining strictly opposed to  Europeanisation of French nuclear deterrence and EU27-funded defence projects. Overall, the RN claims to have no “dogmatic philosophy” towards the EU. It shows interest in Europe-wide cooperation in selected areas, such as space, military, industry and AI.[1]

A difficult ambivalence to maintain

The RN is therefore showing a surprising amount of discretion on the international stage, especially as other European far-right figures seek to benefit from Trump’s momentum. While the party’s strong position in France and the European Parliament provides the ammunition for it to fully participate in the rising global populist movement, RN has chosen to remain on the fringes of what Macron described as a reactionary internationale.

But there are also limits on how far RN is willing to go. Despite softening its rhetoric towards the EU, the party still promotes a disruptive foreign policy through its votes. For example, at the European Parliament, RN MEPs voted categorically against any EU enlargement or for deeper European integration. In July 2024, they also refused to back the provision of further aid to Ukraine, citing it as being at too high a cost.

Moreover, the party’s foreign policy priorities remain focused on what it views as the “fight” against immigration, diminishing public aid and reforming international asylum rights. Despite RN’s apparent public break with the second Trump administration, its policies are similar to what Trump has advocated for since being in office; this affiliates the party with a populist, reactionary far-right.

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In the last few months, the RN has publicly distanced itself from its former pro-Trump and pro-Putin stances, while a generation of younger leaders such as Bardella and Thionnet have softened approach towards the EU. However, the support shown by far-right leaders for Le Pen after her conviction is again setting the party within MAGA/MEGA trends. The evolution of the RN after this judicial watershed moment will be decisive.

Internally, friction could emerge between old and new generation executives, or even directly between Le Pen and Bardella. The RN could seek a partnership with the traditional right, as the conservative French Republicans (LR) in France or the European Parliament’s European People’s Party (EPP), to promote its own interests through large right-wing coalitions—such as Bardella’s recent call for the EPP to form an alternative majority to tear down the Green Deal.

But the RN might also end its policy of “strategic discretion” and join the vocal, global far-right which is showing such loyalty towards Le Pen at her weakest hour. For RN, it’s time to choose. 

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[1] From an informal discussion with an official in charge of the party’s foreign policy in November 2024