Czechs and balances: Protecting Ukraine aid from the new government in Prague
Andrej Babis’s populist party won the Czech parliamentary election with the mantra of “Czechia first” and a promise to stop sending ammunition to Ukraine. Another European country, such as Finland, needs to take its place
Andrej Babis—the former Czech prime minister, billionaire and friend of Viktor Orban—is back. His populist ANO (YES) movement has secured the most seats in the country’s parliamentary election, and is seeking to form a minority government. More likely, it will have to reach a coalition agreement with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) and the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party (Motoristé sobě). Either way, the next Czech government will be backed by MPs supporting Russia, advocating for a referendum on membership in the EU and NATO and promising a reassessment of all Ukrainians’ residence permits. This is bad news for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
If Babis and his potential coalition partners follow through on their election promises, the EU could have another spoiler state on its hands, alongside Orban’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia. Together with the recent election of right-wing Karol Nawrocki to the Polish presidency, the Visegrad group now stands revived as a nationalist force in the middle of Europe.
The warning signs are there: Babis aligns with far-right parties in Patriots for Europe and calls for the government to give more money to Czechs instead of supporting Ukraine. Crucially, he also wants to revoke the Czech ammunition initiative—which sends most of Europe’s artillery shells to Ukraine. Doing so would directly hamper Ukraine’s efforts on the front line by causing artillery shortages from the beginning of 2026.[1]
Shadows over the Czech Initiative
The Czech ammunition initiative is a coordination effort launched by Prague in early 2024 to secure deliveries of large calibre artillery shells for Ukraine. In it, the Czech government pools funding from European countries and Canada for Czech firms to source rounds globally. It has since become an effective and pragmatic mechanism to quickly fill some of Ukraine’s ammunition gaps—and has strengthened Prague’s role as a key enabler of European defence support. In return, Czech defence manufacturers get a few percent of earnings from the contracts, boosting their turnover. Despite criticisms that the initiative lacks transparency, occasionally overprices ammunition and delays deliveries, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, thinks it “works excellently”.
In total, the initiative delivered 1.5 million artillery shells in 2024, financed primarily by countries other than the Czech Republic. This year, Czech president Petr Pavel estimated that deliveries could reach 1.8 million. This makes up the bulk of Europe’s total ammunition support to Ukraine, whose soldiers fire 15,000 rounds daily. According NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European manufacturers are expected to produce 2 million artillery rounds this year—not all of which will go to the war effort.
Keeping the shells coming
The value of the Czech initiative lies in its stable and relatively timely deliveries of ammunition, unlike the nowadays less predictable US deliveries. Although this line of work is inherently complex and risky, Czech private companies proved to be reliable partners. An additional advantage was Prague’s access to and trusted relations with countries outside the EU and NATO, including certain non-European markets that would otherwise have been unwilling to supply ammunition to Ukraine.
To prevent Ukraine from facing ammunition shortages, participating countries should first finalise new contracts in the coming month, before the new government is formed and can terminate them
To prevent Ukraine from facing ammunition shortages, participating countries should first finalise new contracts in the coming month, before the new government is formed and can terminate them. Several contracts already extend into 2026, some even into 2027. These are unlikely to be altered as their termination would be illegal.[2] Alternatively, should a future Babis government stop purchasing artillery on behalf of other states, countries involved could continue purchasing ammunition directly from the Czech companies that source it.
Second, the time has come for another country—or a coalition of countries—to step forward and assume leadership of the initiative. The ideal candidate should meet three key criteria:
- Enjoy the confidence of other European partners, ensuring trust in financial contributions
- Hold a solid reputation and strong standing in the global arms market; and
- Not be constrained by international conventions that restrict the use of certain types of munitions, such as cluster munitions or remotely delivered mines.
Finland, for example, could be a well-suited candidate, as it meets the first two criteria and, with its withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention and its non-signatory status to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, is no longer bound by these specific prohibitions.
Third, there is a decent chance that Prague’s policy towards Ukraine may not change so drastically. President Pavel has announced there are specific red lines regarding potential nominees to the defence and foreign ministries, both of which have a big say in shaping support to Ukraine. The Czech president, who has to approve the positions, has also said he won’t appoint politicians that question the Czech Republic’s membership in NATO and the EU and has urged Czech parties to protect the initiative. Such pressure may result in the prime minister nominating a less controversial candidate, such as a career diplomat who would, to some degree, safeguard and defend the current pro-European direction of the country’s foreign policy.
An erosion of credibility
The Czech ammunition initiative was a highly welcome move just as American support for Ukraine dimmed. It has provided Ukraine with desperately needed artillery rounds, but has also served as a significant diplomatic success. Importantly, it was not a costly endeavour for Prague itself, but rather a coordination mechanism that proved effective. The initiative was a smart move: while the Czech Republic cannot surpass the Baltic states in per capita contributions, nor compete with larger powers like Germany in absolute terms, by assuming a leadership role it positioned itself among the key supporters and enablers in the military domain. This gave the country a stronger posture in NATO, the EU and among coalition of the willing allies like Britain.
If Babis revokes the initiative, he would seriously erode the credibility of the Czech Republic among its European partners. By aligning with Fico and Orban, he would limit Prague’s influence to blocking EU consensus and push it to the periphery in the defence debate. At the same time, support for Ukraine remains pivotal to both Czech and European security: the recent incursion of Russian drones in Poland, only 500 kilometres from the Czech border, is as a stark reminder.
[1] Author’s online interview with Aleš Vytečka, director of AMOS, the Czech defence ministry agency coordinating the ammunition initiative, September 12th 2025.
[2] Author’s online interview with Aleš Vytečka, director of AMOS, the Czech defence ministry agency coordinating the ammunition initiative, September 12th 2025.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.
