Cold calculations: Why a freezing Transnistria helps Moscow

Problem

As of 1 January, Russian gas no longer flows west through Ukrainian pipelines, as the residual contract signed in 2019 expired. European countries were well prepared, except for the unrecognised pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova. Its population of around 300,000 have since been subject to increasing power cuts in freezing weather.

Transnistria has so far refused Moldova’s help. Russia could also supply Transnistria through the TurkStream pipeline. But by leaving Transnistria out in the cold, Moscow is hoping to weaken the pro-European government in Chisinau in the run-up to the parliamentary election due by the summer. Because Moldova proper is now not getting its normal electricity supply from Transnistria, it has been forced to buy half its electricity from Romania. Tariffs have already doubled. Moscow hopes this will trigger a second wave of inflation after Chisinau successfully reduced it to 5%. While pro-European president Maia Sandu was narrowly re-elected in November, her party is not as popular and faces a difficult election campaign – especially up against the Kremlin’s latest push.

To boost its efforts, Russia is also running a coordinated disinformation campaign to blame the government – as with recent coordinated statements by the Russian embassy in Moldova and Transnistrian ‘Ministry of Foreign Affairs’. These statements blame Ukraine and the West for the crisis, claiming that “some ‘hotheads’ are proposing to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force”.

Solution

The European Union should be aware that this is a part of Russia’s broader destabilisation of Moldova. To convince Transnistria to accept help and supply Moldova’s electricity, the EU could support Moldova in energy round-tripping: Moldova can buy gas for Transnistria, which helps it make electricity, which Moldova then buys. To finance the added cost, the EU could top up Moldova’s Energy Efficiency Fund and donate more to the EU- and UN-led Energy Vulnerability Reduction Fund. In previous crises, this has helped Chisinau compensate for higher tariffs.

Above all, Moldova needs more resources to combat Russian election interference, particularly in information warfare. Moldova has produced some excellent pro-EU videos; but the government and civil society needs to operate on a much bigger scale to compete with pro-Russian efforts on Telegram and through local influencers. The EU can achieve a lot by helping Moldova blame the right people for the current crisis.

Context

Transnistria was unprepared for the cut-off. The authorities talked about large reserves and switching to coal; but its main electricity station uses specific coal from the Donbas in occupied Ukraine and reserves are likely to run out by the end of January. What began as one or two hours of power cuts are now reaching eight hours a day. Industry and water supply are also affected. School holidays have been extended to 20 January. For the moment, Transnistria seems to have been told to suffer. Russia will then likely provide humanitarian relief, just as electricity supplies were resumed to Abkhazia in December. The narrative of ‘saving’ Russian-speakers will swing into action, as will the narrative that this option was denied to Moldova proper by its government. Or Russia may continue the crisis to further pressure Chisinau.