A dangerous gamble: Republika Srpska’s test for Bosnia and the EU

Problem

Last Wednesday, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state court convicted Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian president of Republika Srpska, for defying the decisions of the international high representative in the country, as per the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement. Dodik’s actions earned him a one year prison sentence and a six-year ban from holding public office. The first-instance ruling takes effect only after appeals are exhausted.

Dodik quickly dismissed the ruling as politically motivated. The next day, the Republika Srpska assembly adopted laws blocking state-level police and judiciary operations, creating a parallel judicial body, and introducing a Russian-style foreign agents registry targeting civil society. In a informal note to foreign diplomats, Republika Srpska authorities also threatened full withdrawal from the Dayton Agreement unless all state-level institutions created since 1995 are abolished.[1] 

The Trump administration has since twice refused to sign a routine joint statement backing the high representative, while Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban supported Dodik, undermining EU unity on the ground.

Solution

1. Stay calm and let Bosnia’s institutions work
   Europeans should let Bosnian law address the situation. The Republika Srpska assembly passed these laws under urgent procedure—without public debate or a second reading. They could be delayed for weeks or months if contested in the upper chamber. Once enacted, their legality will be challenged before the state constitutional court, which will likely rule them unconstitutional and may even suspend them before it makes this ruling. However, further actions by the high representative would only deepen divisions and strengthen Dodik, who is using last week’s ruling to rally support against state institutions. Including that of the Russia, which has called for extraordinary session of the UN Securrity Council to discuss the situation in Bosnia.
2. Set a clear red line
   The European Union and its member states, alongside partners in like the United Kingdom, and Turkey must make clear to Republika Srpska that implementing the new laws before verifying their constitutionality will have consequences. This is not unprecedented. In October 2021, the Republika Srpska assembly passed a law to create a parallel medicinal agency, aiming to undermine state institutions. Signed in December, it took effect in June 2022 but was suspended by the constitutional court days later and annulled by December. In this case, a united stance by the European Commission, Germany, the UK, and the United States that made clear implimentation was a red line and would incur financial sanctions prevented Republika Srpska authorities from acting. Given the US can no longer be relied upon as a guarunteed partner, Europeans should aim to repeat this success on their own.
3. Reassess policy instruments
   Donald Trump’s erratic presidency, shifting US policy on Bosnia, and Hungary’s obstruction within the EU require a broader policy reassessment. The EU together with the UK must evaluate the future of the high representative and, together with NATO, reconsider the EU-led military mission, EUFOR Althea, which depends on annual UN Security Council renewal—where Russia, China and the US hold veto power.
   Europeans should also make clear to their Bosnian counterparts that the state-level institutions created since 1995 are essential for the country’s EU accession and stability. Their weakening or abolition would undermine current and future integration, affecting free trade, visa-free travel, and other agreements.

Context

Facing growing resistance to his decisions, the current officeholder, former German politician Christian Schmidt, criminalised the non-implementation of his rulings in July 2023, backed by the Biden administration. Dodik’s case is the first to be tried under this law. He is likely using the ruling to test whether shifting dynamics in transatlantic relationship create an opening to push forward his seperatist claims.

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[1] The author has received and reviewed a copy of this informal note.