Tom Wright from Brookings will discuss how the United States and its allies should adjust their strategy to preserve and strengthen the international order in a more geopolitically competitive world.
China has reached a crossroads. After years of political stability and enviable economic growth, the regime has been facing a stark choice about how the country should move forward. But two crucial recent political events have turned Chinese politics on its head, and are forcing it to decide whether to regress or reform.
Over the last year villagers in Wukan, in Guangdong province, rose up and ousted their corrupt local leaders after months of protest. Meanwhile, Bo Xilai, the Communist Party secretary in Chongqing, who used Maoist rhetoric and violence to push his vision of economic development, was ousted from his post in March.
In a new ECFR essay, ‘China at the crossroads’, François Godement argues that these two events signal that the Chinese government may be choosing the path of legal and political reform, promoting sustainable growth to reduce macroeconomic imbalances and overreliance on the dollar. François argues that:
Click here for a PDF of ‘China analysis: one or two Chinese models’ (2011) which examined the debate over Chinese economic development.
“If the reformers get the upper hand, this may prompt a conservative backlash. But if China does not move quickly forward it will regress to a planned economy run by crony capitalism and Maoism.”François Godement
This paper, like all ECFR publications, represents the views of its author, not the collective position of ECFR or its Council Members.
Obama in Berlin: Germany remains essential EU partner for the US, says Ulrike Guérot.
"The wandering Europeans" quoting ECFR report on the two-state solution.
Germany is a "geo-economic power": an article on "Obamerkel" quotes Hans Kundnani.