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Calls for a European civilian 'surge' in Afghanistan

"The military surge in Afghanistan will fail unless it comes with a civilian surge as part of a new strategy", says a new policy brief by Daniel Korski of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

A largely unnoticed "surge" of European troops in Afghanistan now needs to be followed by a similar "surge" in civilian experts as part of a new European strategy for the country. The policy brief - Shaping Europe's Afghan Surge - includes the first comprehensive survey of EU troop numbers in Afghanistan. It is released ahead of the NATO summit in Strasbourg-Kehl on 3-4 April. On his first visit to Europe, President Barack Obama will be looking for new European ideas to accompany the forthcoming growth in American troop numbers in Afghanistan. 

EU countries must acknowledge there can be no military solution to end the insurgency and launch a new strategy for Afghanistan, argues Daniel Korski, a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in "Shaping Europe's Afghan Surge". Most importantly, the EU and the US should encourage the next Afghan government to negotiate with insurgent leaders willing to lay down arms and integrate the political process. While more troops continue to be needed, Europe's emphasis must be on sending more civilian experts, says Korski, a former adviser to the Afghan government in Kabul. Police, administrative trainers and election observers are a particular priority.

"The EU and NATO need a new strategy in Afghanistan. To move towards stability and peace in Afghanistan, the next Afghan government must be encouraged to negotiate with all those insurgent leaders who are open to reconciliation. NATO must do better to avoid casualties amongst Afghan civilians, the EU should send more non-military assistance. Too many EU member states are failing their commitment to make rebuilding Afghanistan a priority", says Martti Ahtisaari, a founding member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and the former President of Finland. Ahtisaari was awarded the Nobel peace prize in 2008 for his contributions to resolving international conflicts.

"The EU urgently needs a comprehensive overhaul of its Afghanistan strategy, unambiguously backed by a strong political commitment. A coherent European civil-military strategy needs to be put into place right away. In Afghanistan there is no short cut to success. This is clearly not the time to give up or to get out", says Emma Bonino, a founding member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, former EU Commissioner, and currently Vice President of the Italian Senate. Bonino is one of Europe's leading human rights activists and experts on Afghanistan, and a former leader of European efforts to organise international pressure on the Taliban regime in the late 1990s.

"Improving regional diplomacy is fundamental to Afghanistan's economic and political security, and central to the EU's own security interests. The EU must move urgently to revitalise regional diplomatic efforts and develop a consistent policy to help stabilise Pakistan", says Joschka Fischer, a founding member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and the former German foreign minister.

Contrary to a widespread perception, EU countries have rapidly but quietly increased their military presence in Afghanistan in recent years. According to the survey, 18 of the 25 EU countries with troops in Afghanistan have increased their deployment since late 2006, taking the number of EU troops from 17,433 to 26,389. EU countries are now responsible for 43 per cent of troops in ISAF, the NATO mission in Afghanistan.

"If EU governments are serious about Afghanistan, they should complement the coming US military push with a civilian surge of their own. They must ensure the elections are secure, train the army and the police, and reach out to the Taliban," says Korski.

Shaping Europe's Afghan Surge" is based on extensive original research, including interviews with European military leaders and diplomats in Afghanistan. Daniel Korski will be in Afghanistan until 29 March, and is available for interviews about the brief and his most recent on-the-ground observations.

The brief recommends a six-point plan for Europe's Afghan strategy: (1) safeguard Afghanistan's elections; (2) re-launch reconciliation with the Taliban; (3) improve security by training the Afghan army and police; (4) change Europe's counter-narcotics policy; (5) target development; (6) revive regional diplomacy.

Safeguard the elections Afghanistan votes in presidential and provincial elections this August. The EU must help guarantee security at the polls. To prevent electoral fraud, the EU should send as many election observers as possible, led by an experienced and respected European figure. The EU should persuade Hamid Karzai to stand aside and let the Chief Justice act as President during the election.

Relaunch reconciliation After the elections, the international community must launch a process of political outreach to insurgents. Negotiations should aim to strengthen "pragmatic" leaders and to wean away from the Taliban those tribal leaders who have joined the insurgency out of convenience rather than religious fervour. Constitutional reform could create incentives for insurgents to leave the battlefield.

Improve security by training the army and police The most efficient and sustainable way for the EU to contribute to security in Afghanistan is to step up its efforts in military and police training. The EU should create a 2,000-person military advisory force under NATO auspices; back a NATO Military Training Mission; boost staff numbers; improve efforts to recruit police mentors from European countries outside the EU; and establish a €50 million police investment fund.

Change the EU's counter-narcotics policy The only real solution to Afghanistan's drug problem is long-term development, and so the international community should focus on prioritising security for local farmers and making alternative crops economically viable. But there must be no culture of impunity: the EU should support the creation of a special UN-backed serious-crimes tribunal for the prosecution of Afghanistan's drug lords.

Target development Both national governments and the EU as a whole must increase and improve their aid efforts in Afghanistan, and target regions where security is particularly poor. The EU should also take over Kabul's reconstruction.

Revive regional diplomacy Success in Afghanistan requires engagement in the region's wider conflicts. In particular, Europe needs a new strategy for Pakistan. The EU should consider launching a police reform programme, focusing on the troubled North-West Frontier Province. The EU should also lobby for a new UN "assistance envoy"; help Pakistan's many internally displaced people; and facilitate a broader set of regional confidence-building measures.

Link to full report: http://ecfr.eu/page/-/documents/ECFR-Policy-Brief-Afghanistan.pdf

 
NOTES TO EDITORS

 
1. "Shaping Europe's Afghan Surge" was written by Daniel Korski, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This brief, like all ECFR publications, represents the views of its author, not the collective position of ECFR or its Council Members.

2. Daniel Korski will be in Kabul until 29 March and can be reached for comment there at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or +44 7876 616 302.

3. For all media enquiries please email .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or telephone +44 20 7031 1623

4. Launched in October 2007, the European Council on Foreign Relations is a pan-European think tank and advocacy group, co-chaired by Martti Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje. 

 
European Council on Foreign Relations - www.ecfr.eu