The European Council on Foreign Relations

Ukraine decides: the dust starts to settle

By Andrew Wilson - 09 Feb 10
The dust is now starting to settle on the results of Ukraine's first presidential election since the Orange revolution, and pressure is mounting on Yuliya Tymoshenko to give up. With 99.95% of the vote counted, she is behind by 45.5% to 48.9%. Her indecisiveness on Monday spoke volumes: she called and then cancelled two press conferences as her options narrowed. The OSCE gave the vote a largely clean bill of health at its press conference, which was then endorsed in a statement by Lady Ashton for the EU. Tymoshenko must have been able to hear the doors shutting from over in Kiev. 

Tymoshenko can still launch a legal process, but it seems to have little chance of success. On the other hand, it might force Yanukovych into private negotiations, as he is desperate for his presidency to gain a legitimate start.

Some of Tymoshenko's lieutenants, like Mykola Tomenko, have already said now is the time to go into opposition. Except that Tymoshenko is still prime minister. She can still threaten to block Yanukovych's every early move. She is probably parleying the price of her withdrawal. Tymoshenko is once again expected to make a statement later today, but even that could be delayed. The dust is settling, but that doesn't mean the Ukrainian elections have a final outcome.

Andrew has been blogging throughout the Ukrainian elections. Catch the most recent update here

Listen to his special podcast interview with two eminent Ukrainians, Olexiy Haran and Mykola Ryabchuk, here 

For the press...Andrew is available for interviews. Click here for our press advisory.

 


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