Ukraine decides, second round: Part Three

By Andrew Wilson - 05 Feb 10

Yuliya turns up the temperature

With the final vote in Ukraine's first presidential election since the Orange Revolution just a day or so away, Yuliya Tymoshenko has turned up the political temperature. The provocation was Wednesday's vote to change the election law by supporters of her rival, Viktor Yanukovych. She went straight onto the attack, and claimed it meant "honest elections have come to an end". She then threatened to call people out on the streets in a repeat of the Orange Revolution.

To date, however, it has been Yanukovych's people on the streets (in temperatures as low as -20). Even before the first round of the election, crowds of chanting supporters were massed outside the main government and election buildings. A pop concert on the eve of that first day, in St. Sofiya square, gathered several thousand more, organised like a US Convention from all the regions of Ukraine. The implication was clear - "we may be listening to music now, but we have the numbers". The total number of Party of Regions supporters in Kiev was estimated at between 20,000 and 30,000.

Nobody knows if Tymoshenko could match that. In any case, the demonstrations so far have been mainly made up of party members and people paid to make up the numbers (with rumours of football supporters in reserve). Some ordinary Ukrainians have joined in, but they were not at the organisational core. Unlike the Orange Revolution, any conflict on the streets this time would be part of the post-election chess game, rather than a genuine popular uprising, even if it is made to appear like the latter (and journalists treat it as such).

The mechanics of this street-demo aspect of the election are intriguing. One reason why Yanukovych's supporters voted to dismiss Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko a week ago is that he shares responsibility for public order. The other key authority is Kiev's eccentric major Leonid Chernovetsky, widely assumed to be close to the Party of Regions. President Yushchenko has posted Interior Ministry Troops to guard the Central Election Commission building (with questionable authority), but it seems increasingly clear he is working with Yanukovych to stop Tymoshenko at any price.

In fact, one scenario after Sunday's vote is for Yushchenko to connive in a speedy inauguration of Yanukovych in return for his Our Ukraine party playing a big role in a new coalition government with the Party of Regions. Yanukovych could even appoint a business-friendly centrist like Yuriy Yekhanurov as Prime Minister, who previously held the job under Yushchenko in 2005-6. Another name mentioned is Raïsa Bohatyrova, number two on the Party of Regions' list at the last parliamentary elections, but who defected to become Secretary of the National Security Council under Yushchenko. Unfortunately, there are plenty of sharks in the Party of Regions who also want the job.

Tymoshenko has legitimate reasons to complain. But she also seems to be using the spectre of mass fraud to mobilise her supporters, and to prepare a legal case if she loses by a narrow margin.

This places the international community in a bind. Ukraine is not Russia - Ukrainians care about their international standing and a new President elected by subterfuge would not have much power after a Pyrrhic victory.

But the international community is forced to wait and see if there is any mass breach of due process. A lot rests on the judgement of the election monitors from OSCE-ODIHR. They have to tread through a minefield of several as yet unexploded bombs: they must be precise about the level and nature of fraud, but avoid giving ammunition to a highly politicised complaints process; if they are too passive they will be unable to forestall a jump-inauguration process, if they are too active they may help derail an election that for all its faults was basically free and fair.

Once again, the winning margin is the thing to watch. Campaigning is not allowed on Saturday, so I'll be waiting for the first signs of the way the wind is blowing on Sunday before the next post.