After last night's exit polls, this morning we're getting the first actual results from the elections. As this is Ukraine, the story changes every day. When people woke up to check the count of the actual votes, things were not going so well for Tymoshenko, though the overall result still looks close. The main exit poll last night that was proudly displayed throughout Tymoshenko's press conference had her only 4-5% behind. With 88% of the vote counted at midday Kiev time, the gap is more like 10-11%. Yanukovych has 35.5% versus Tymoshenko on 25%. Tyhipko is confirmed in third with 13%. In Ukraine, as in most countries, results from the bigger cities come in first and Tymoshenko will do better in the countryside, so the gap could shrink a little.

 

Turnout was OK, at 66.7% - better than Russia or the UK for that matter, but less than last time. The snow didn't help.

 

So Tymoshenko has a bigger job than she thought. The smaller candidates can expect a higher price for their support. The gap between the two rounds is long, at three weeks; and the Yanukovych team already has demonstrators practising outside parliament. A close result could end up in the courts - or on the streets. But not like last time - any protest would be short and contentious. Neither candidate has campaigned at their best. All to play for.

For more...

In Part One of Ukraine Decides, Andrew looks at what went wrong after 2004's Orange Revolution. You can read Part One here

In Part Two of Ukraine Decides, Andrew examines why Europe should care about the Ukrainian election. You can read Part Two here

In Part Three of Ukraine Decides, Andrew told us what to watch out for on election night. You can read Part Three here here

In Part Four of Ukraine Decides, Andrew casts his eyes over the first exit polls. You can read Part Four here 

You can listen to a podcast interview with Andrew Wilson talking about the elections here. You can also subscribe to ECFR podcasts via iTunes or podhoster.com.

Andrew Wilson is available for press interviews and comment on the elections. Click here for our press advisory.