The European Council on Foreign Relations

Time to get real about the European dream - and the American one

As part of our Scorecard debate here is a new guest blog post - this time we hear from Prof. Michael E. Smith (University of Aberdeen). You can also follow him on twitter @ProfMESmith.

May 9 was Europe Day - for the EU. The Council of Europe, however, set May 5 as its Europe Day. Europeans, it seems, can't even agree on when to celebrate their unity.  Worse, the EU in particular is having yet another identity crisis involving self-doubt and internal recriminations. This time, however, it seems different; a recent poll by the Pew Research Centre warns that support for the EU has fallen from 60% to 45%.  Perhaps most EU citizens realise that things are more serious this time, because the stakes are higher. The creation of the euro zone has locked a subset of EU countries into an uneasy, and unbalanced, relationship with each other, while simultaneously causing some non-euro EU

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US - Turkey relations: a bitter honeymoon

Today relations between the US and Turkey are in a much better shape than a few years ago. Israel's decision to apologise to the Turks over the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident and offer financial compensation, reached after heavy American lobbying, has given the Obama administration a sigh of relief. Now that the US is seeking to extricate itself from the Middle East and pivot to East Asia, two critical allies are willing to re-engage. Today's visit of Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington DC must be seen in this context. The Turkish leader is received with top honours by Obama and Biden, and is given plenty of time and attention. The fact is that he and the US president have managed to build a strong relationship which also survived the dark days when there was a lot of talk about Ankara’s turn to the East - towards Iran, Hamas and the like. The sheer number of meetings between

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Madrid view: Now, Eurunemployed

The European economy now lies under a shadow - the severe situation of unemployment, stagnation and cutbacks in the welfare state, bringing hardship to millions of Europeans. The magnitudes are impressive. If the 26 million unemployed people in the EU declared their independence, they would be the sixth-largest state in terms of population.

To illustrate this, what country would be better than Spain? There are now more unemployed Spaniards than there are people in Denmark (5.5 million), not to mention less populous states such as Slovakia, Finland and several others. If the 6.2 million unemployed Spaniards decided to secede from Spain and set up their own state, there would be no less than 11 states dwarfed by this hypothetical "Republic of the Dole". Of course, while all these jobless Spaniards lack a political voice of their own, those 11 states of the EU each have a commissioner

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Bulgaria’s elections: change we disbelieve in

“If elections changed anything they would have them banned”. So read a well-known piece of Sofia graffiti some years ago (inspired by political activist/anarchist Emma Goldman). Bulgaria’s parliamentary polls on 12 May 2013 seem to confirm the bitter cynicism of this slogan as almost half of Bulgaria's electorate did not turn up at the voting booths. The low turnout is striking, given that as recently as February, economic hardship and widespread resentment of the political class propelled thousands onto the streets of Sofia, Varna and other big cities voicing demands for a complete overhaul of “the system”.

Three months on, it is apathy that prevails, not the will to install fresh faces in parliament. More than one grouping claimed to represent the protesters, but none made it past the 4% threshold. As I wrote in March, Bulgaria isn’t getting its own Beppe Grillo or Alexis

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Will China become an Arctic observer?

Kiruna - a calm town in North Sweden - is currenty hosting the annual Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting. The Arctic Council is a regional organisation which usually does not receive a lot of geopolitical attention as it mainly focuses on environment, shipping and joint research. However, this time the meeting of foreign ministers will also debate whether to grant China and other Asian nations such as India, Japan, and Singapore an observer status. The application of the EU will also be on the agenda. Everyon is suddenly eager to get a seat at the table.

China’s bid for a seat among the Arctic member states has made most of a media splash because of China’s growing power and increasingly global reach. As the ice is melting, the Arctic has also become an interesting region in terms of new shipping routes, but it also offers potential for resource extractio. The U.S. Geological

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