The European Council on Foreign Relations

Tunisia is a strategic opportunity for the EU

Date: 21st January 2011  |  Author: Jose Ignacio Torreblanca,

Categories: Europe and the world,
Tags: , democracy, eu, human rights, tunisia

It´s very seldom in life that you get a big prize for having done everything wrong. This is what is happening to the EU in Tunisia. In October 2009, Ben Ali rigged the election to get 89% of the vote, and the EU did nothing. Worse than that, Stefan Füle visited the country in March 2010 and declared that “Tunisia is, in many respects, an example for the region”.Then, at the 8^th meeting of the EU-Tunisia Association Council held in Brussels on May 2010, the EU decided to set up and ad hoc committee to study the upgrading of the 1995 association agreement to the “advanced status”. Describing Tunisia as "an important and reliable partner", Štefan Füle said perspectives for strengthening EU-Tunisia relations were “excellent”. Again, it did not matter that the Tunisian Parliament had approved a reform of the Penal Code which criminalising “any persons who shall, directly or indirectly, have contacts with agents of a foreign country, foreign institution or organisation in order to encourage them to affect the vital interests of Tunisia and its economic security”, a law which in fact would have shut down any remaining human rights NGO.

Now, the EU should try to learn from its mistakes and start getting things right. The window of opportunity in Tunisia is not going to be open for ever. In fact, there are high chances that it will close: a return to authoritarianism or a slide into chaos is just what the neighboring autocratic leaders are waiting for. Mubarak is 82 and wants to put his son in his place, Buteflika is also 73 and Algerians are equally unhappy, political reforms in Morocco are stagnant and corruption is increasing, and Gaddafi in Libya is also ageing. But the people in Northern Africa cannot afford another lost decade.

Here are three concrete suggestions for practical things the EU could do, by itself or together with others. First, approve and emergency package of economic and financial aid to make sure that the economic crisis does not trump the political reform process between now and the elections. Second, send a mission to help the Tunisian government organise the next elections so they meet standards of freedom and fairness. This would include a sweeping political liberalisation including freedom of association and freedom of the press laws. Third, the EU could send a police and judicial mission to cooperate in the reform of the Ministry of the Interior and the police and security apparatus so as to make sure that human rights are effectively guaranteed. The EU has done this in Bosnia and in Subsaharian Africa so it would not be a big deal.

Brussels should not be afraid of using conditionality.  Article 2 of the 1995  EU-Tunisia association agreement states: “Relations between the Parties, as well as all the provisions of the Agreement itself, shall be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles which guide their domestic and international policies and constitute an essential element of the Agreement”. And Articles 3.5 and 21 of the EU Treaty establish democratic conditionality as a guiding principle of EU foreign relations. Therefore, the EU should empower reform forces in Tunisia by declaring that an undemocratic outcome of the crisis will imply the suspension of the current association agreement (as it did with the Colonels in Greece in 1967) while a successful one will set the advanced status on the table together with a further package of trade liberalisation (especially in agriculture) which would boost the new regime legitimacy and capacity to deliver.

A democratic Tunisia is both possible and affordable for the EU, and it will have a large impact in the region. Therefore, the EU should not waste this strategic opportunity. At a moment when the Union for the Mediterranean is dead and political conditionality discredited, Tunisia offers a good chance for the EU to go back to square one and start doing things right.

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