The European Council on Foreign Relations

The new Chinese year: trends to watch out for

Date: 4th February 2011  |  Author: François Godement,

Categories: China,
Tags: , eu, hu jintao, human rights, north korea, china

At Chinese New Year, much grinds to a halt in the Middle Kingdom, making it a good time for China-watchers to catch their breath and take stock.

ECFR’s China programme has been doing just that. Here is our take on the themes and debates that are likely to shape change both within China and in its relations with the world in the year ahead.  You can read the full version here, but in short, our eight issues to watch are:

1)      China’s trade surplus continues unabated. The resulting influx, also from hot money to national coffers will continue to fund domestic and external investment on a huge scale]

2)      The currency question: expect slow progress on internationalising the renminbi, and a reluctance from China to take on any more responsibilities within the global financial system

3)      Little sign of progress on human rights, amid setbacks for liberal newspapers and changes to death penalty laws. Europe must speak out publicly on these issues, or China will think it has effectively given up.

4)      Insecurity among the political elite; coverage of Egypt has been banned recently, and there is a freeze at the top as the 2012 succession looms nearer

5)      A more strident line on foreign policy; state-owned media, nationalist internet activists and military figures are flexing their muscles, which worries more cautious voices within China. Perhaps asign of power struggle in the Party?

6)      China’s expanding control of the neighbourhood: looser ties with Pyongyang; North Korea is made a poor relative of the Emire.

7)      Developing country vs. great power status. As a new generation of officials in China focus on the latter,  developing world nations are increasingly challenging Beijing’s membership of their club

8)      China as Europe’s banker; Chinese investment in EU member states can be mutually beneficial, if handled correctly, but there needs to be more clarity about directions and flows of funds.

Share or like this blog post Print this post