The European Council on Foreign Relations

Medvedev flies in to the European storm

Date: 18th July 2011  |  Author: Ben Judah,

Categories: Euro Crisis, Wider Europe,
Tags: , euro crisis, medvedev, merkel, putin , putin, russia

Medvedev is touching down in Hannover for talks in a Germany at the heart of a nervous Europe. The Russian President will be flanked by twenty ministers and corporate chieftains. Angela Merkel will be surrounded by a host of problems. European spreads are rising, stocks are falling and squabbles unfolding between Berlin, Brussels and the ECB. 

Moscow is peering into Europe’s rising gloom trying to make sense of it. Russia can discern out of the miserable headlines – a rising Germany, a strengthened Russia negotiating position but also an EU weakened beyond her interests.

Germany over Europe

Putin has long been obsessed about Germany. Since the financial crisis Russia has seen Germany morph into the more independent power the Kremlin has wanted since the 1960s.

Gleb Pavlovsky was long the political technologist closest to power, masterminding Kremlin PR campaigns and dirty tricks in Ukraine. His work with the Kremlin is more or less over but his reputation as a political thermometer endures. On July 14^thhe did a revealing online Q&A hitting on the European crisis:

A post from provincial Tver queried:

“Dear Gleb, very concerned about topic of economic collapse of the EU. Then Greece, Portugal, Ireland will subside. Where is the bulwark of stability?”

He typed back:

“Everyone agrees that the EU is going through a serious crisis. It is also clear that during the crisis Germany has evolved from an EU member state again into the Central European economic giant; this is a serious internal imbalance. I think for us the best neighbour in the West is the European Union, rather than separate national states with growing ambitions. Russia is interested in the strength of the EU certainly more than Greece, Portugal or Italy.”

Pavlovsky said he sensed a more profound ill than political tectonics.

“This is an example of the great European utopia failing because of trying to manage everything from one central location – Brussels.”

A strong hand playing for less

Russia has gloated a bit at the European crisis – it vindicates Russia’s decision to aim for balanced budgets and a low debt economy. Moscow also feels the power dynamic shifting in her favour.

The politically plugged-in Russian economist Sergei Guriev, Rector of the New Economic School and member of the President’s council for Science, Technology and Education, shared some thought with me this morning:

“Russia feels its negotiating power with the EU is shifting in its favour. In general there is a sense of ‘Who are you to lecture us when you have a mess in your house?’ However, the mess in the EU means that it will be very distracted away from negotiating with Russia; hence it will be hard to make progress on anything that Russia want to get something out of the EU – like the visa free regime.”

This is going to be problematic for Moscow. The visa-free regime, WTO entry and getting more trade and technology out of the EU are top priorities. Guriev observed that Russia has reasons to be concerned about the wider Western debt crisis:

"Russia feels that the West is in a difficult situation but Russia treats EU and US problems differently. It is good for Russian politicians who do not want to be lectured by the West but there is also the fact that nobody wants the US economy to collapse as it would drive down the price of oil which will have very negative implications for the Russian economy." 

Russia is in a bind, she wants a politically weak but economically voracious West. The trouble is that in geopolitics, you seldom get one without the other.

Does Putin get the prize?

The West is weakening but Russians are not happy with the ties they have to it. Russia wants what it cannot have – a great personal, trading and political relationship with all Western powers without any interference, lectures or attempts to influence the development of the ex-Soviet states.

The yellow press is always more reflective of the national mood than any broadsheet. The leading Russian tabloid ‘Moscovsky Komsomolets,’ with 1m readers, published a commentary about the withdrawal of the distinguished German Quadriga prize from Vladimir Putin after public outcry. They viewed it as symptomatic of a wider foreign policy ill:

“The favourite country of our most beloved Prime Minister struck a painful blow to the ego of Vladimir Putin. Putin’s award was for his contribution to the strengthening of Russian-German friendship, known as the German "Quadriga” award, but it was withdrawn because of loud protests from the European public. When thinking about the situation without the banter, the story about the prize itself is a storm in a teacup. But this scandal – reminds us "hot" the man now referred to as the "national leader" of Russia is in the West.”

The tabloid summed up.

“Until the summer of 2011, to be honest, few people had heard of the Quadriga. And now thanks to our Vladimir Vladimirovich, it became a vivid symbol of the impasse into which relations between Russia and the West came stuck.” 

Share or like this blog post Print this post