The European Council on Foreign Relations

Is Turkey capable of democratising without the EU?

Date: 9th March 2011  |  Author: Dimitar Bechev,

Categories: Wider Europe,
Tags: , democracy, eu, turkey

This is the million dollar question asked by watchers of the country’s ever-boiling domestic political scene.  Secular critics of the AKP government see the mild Islamists’ alliance with Brussels as a tactical move to wrestle power away from the military and the “deep state” (anyone who’s interested in the latter should read my friend Kerem Öktem’s latest book) . Now that the EU is no longer committed, Recep Tayyip Erdoğanet al. have also lost interest in the whole affair. Though they talk the talk, they are less likely to walk the walk. In foreign affairs, that means more attention to Middle Eastern neighbours, though the whole “change of axis” argument is, no doubt, overblown. But the real stakes have to do with what goes on inside the country.  Could the end result of the “soft divorce” with the EU be a relapse to authoritarianism? 

Such fears have been strengthened by the 3rd March arrests of two high-profile journalists, Ahmet Şık and Nedim Şener, on suspicions of belonging to Ergenekon, a network of rogue security operatives, ultra-nationalists and organised criminals conspiring to push the AKP administration out of power.  The opposition, including the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), is blaming the government of trying to silence its critics in the run-up to the 12^th June elections. The irony is that Şık, involved in human rights advocacy, was one of the people who discovered the existence of Ergenekon a few years ago.  Same with Şener, the author of a book on the murder of Armenian journalist and activist Hrant Dink. Now there are theories that the real concern behind the arrest was The Imam’s Army, Şık’s forthcoming attack on Fethullah Gülen, a Muslim intellectual and preacher with a large following in Turkey. Soft-spoken Gülen (whose surname actually means “smiling” in translation) has steadily won the unflattering top position in the chart of figures suspected, if not profoundly hated, by the seculars. Ask any of them and you will hear stories about Gülen’s influence in Turkish police, more formidable than AKP’s alleged control over the judiciary in the wake of last year’s referendum.

Whatever the truth behind the arrests – and evidence against the two is yet to be shown to the public – one thing is for sure. The kind of polarisation we saw during the referendum campaign last year is back for good, if it ever abated. The sad realisation is that the EU is less and less part of the story. One conclusion from ECFR’s study visit to Turkey last week is that political developments are increasingly products of internal forces. Gone are the times in the early 2000s when the EU inspired or even demanded reforms. What happens in Turkey reflects domestic realities. Optimists would counter that the democratisation process has built sufficient momentum of its own.  Too good to be true, retort the so-called “anxious moderns”, blaming secular liberals who have aligned with the AKP over the years as a force of progress. The recent wave of arrests adds new preoccupations. And there will be no definitive answer to the questions that animate Turkish citizens until after this summer, when we are very likely to see a fresh push for constitutional change or perhaps an altogether new constitutional draft.

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