The European Council on Foreign Relations

Europe: an Asian agenda item

Date: 16th November 2011  |  Author: Jonas Parello-Plesner,

Categories: China,
Tags: None

Asia is entering a week of high-level summitry. For the American President, Obama it will Asia week. Symbolically, the high-level gathering started today in Hawaii - Eastern Pacific outlier of the US territory - with the APEC Summit. Obama is Asia-jumping on to Australia and ends in Bali for the East Asia Summit where all of Asia’s power nations gather. It will be a first for the American President to join in. The Russian President is also participating officially for the first time. Europe is conspicuously absent with no seat at the table but is reduced to a point on the summit agenda: how to build an effective firewall around Europe’s crisis for Asia and the US.

It used to be Europe’s multilateral institutions that had a gravitational pull for outsiders. The US and Russia joined in OSCE, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Emerging powers like South Korea saw it as an achievement to get membership to the rich club of European and Americans in the OECD, based in Paris. Now the tide has turned. The rest of the world is slightly exasperated with the number of Europeans in G-20 and instead world powers flock to Asian institutions. This is the continent of the future when it comes to economic growth – at the meetings parade the world’s number one (US), two (China) and three (Japan).  It is – unfortunately – also the continent of the future when it comes to unresolved territorial and maritime disputes and is host to the uneasy relationship between a rising China and the US resolved to stand its ground in Asia. 

As Hillary Clinton pointed out in her essay in Foreign Policy, the US is determined to make this America’s Pacific Century enlarging its economic, diplomatic and strategic presence in Asia. The package Obama brings along, this week, is a mixture of new trade initiatives, the TPP, a thinly veiled proposal to work around China trade-wise, and enhanced security discussions where the US has positioned itself in the middle of hot issues like the maritime demarcations between China and its smaller neighbours in the South China Sea. China knows that it has time and geography on its side. Its Asian neighbours are contiguous to it for eternity. The US, a Pacific power, is still primarily in Asia because of the forward deployment of its military. So the US has to assuage partners like Japan, Korea and Australia that even with solid budget cuts in Pentagon the US military anchor in Asia remains credible. 

Hillary Clinton included in her Asia-essay the compulsory reference to Europe as an important ally with shared values. Yet the omission was just as telling. There was no indication of how Europe could be relevant to the American turn towards Asia.

For Europe this means more homework. It means that Europe has to be a credible trouble-shooter in its own locality. If the US is engaged in Asia for years to come there will not be sufficient bandwidth for Europe. Europe has to be prime mover in its own neighbourhood. The Libya-action showed that this can be done but that Europe also needs to think smart as it is also about to cut down defence budgets all over the continent so that essential capabilities don't go missing from Europe’s joint arsenal.

Another part of the homework is that Europe needs to have credible answers to its crisis so that it is taken seriously in Asia and beyond. Europe has a much lower aggregate debt level than Japan and the US. Yet the markets question Europe’s construction and how far German solidarity will stretch on yield spreads. Once genuine crisis-battling strides are taken, Europe can again stand out as the world’s largest economic region and on whose recovery both Asia and the US are dependent.

Lastly, there is the question of who speaks for Europe. Europeans didn’t get an invite for this week’s East Asia summit, although Europe has been knocking meekly at Asia’s door, asking for observer status. France made a short-lived and unsuccessful dash for a national seat. The reason for the reluctance on the Asian side is the hydra-headed Europe. Invite one and you get them all. Who do you get at the table? The big three leaders? The new holy trinity heading the EU-institutions: Van Rompuy, Barosso, and Ashton? All these representational issues greatly occupy Europeans internally. The end result is that the outside dynamic world moves on. Europe gets no seat at the table if Europe can’t come up with a credible interlocutor to pass joint messages.

The really respected face of Europe in Asia is the Trade Commissioner, de Gurcht, who negotiates Free-trade agreements. A deal with South Korea has been concluded. Negotiations are under way with India and some ASEAN countries. Next in line is Japan. Here, Europe is well-received and respected because it comes with clear negotiations mandates and interesting offers of openings. On all other accounts Europe has to work hard to get a credible role in the Pacific Century and not merely be a dinner topics among Asians and Americans.

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