The European Council on Foreign Relations

Burma’s journey towards ‘normal’ authoritarianism

Date: 15th November 2010  |  Author: Anthony Dworkin,

Categories: Rule of law, democracy and human rights,
Tags: aung san suu kyi, democracy, human rights, myanmar, burma

It is natural to celebrate the release of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, but we should be cautious before hailing this as a breakthrough for human rights in Burma.  After all, thousands of other political prisoners remain in captivity and her release was due to the expiration of her sentence rather than any change of heart by the military junta that runs the country.

But Aung San Suu Kyi’s release does come at a moment of change in Burma and it could in turn contribute to the country’s evolving political dynamics.  Last week there were elections in the country engineered to distance the ruling junta from political power and install a civilian regime, albeit one that the regime controls.  The elections do not mark the beginning of democracy in Burma, but they may mark the evolution of Burma into the kind of “competitive authoritarian” regime that is now a familiar feature of the global political scene (the term “competitive authoritarianism" is taken from the influential work of Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, recently published in book form).

It is interesting that in her first comments after being released, Aung San Suu Kyi appeared to suggest that she might consider calling for economic sanctions against Burma by the EU, US and other countries to be lifted.  What may be on the cards is a move away from a situation where Burma is seen as a global outlier, one of the few most repressive regimes in the world (along with North Korea, Cuba and a few others) towards the normalisation of Burma as part of a fairly large group of countries that mimic some democratic forms but remain authoritarian in practice.   Such a development is not certain – it will depend on how the new government behaves and whether other political prisoners are released – but it is possible to see how it could take place. 

Aung San Suu Kyi’s call for internal dialogue and reconciliation would seem to open the way for a clearer policy of engagement from the outside as well.  In the future, policy toward Burma may be less about expressing condemnation of the regime through trade sanctions, and more about finding some balance between the leverage that outside powers possess, the political reforms they wish to see, and the possibility of building coalitions with other outside powers – in other words, the normal frustrating challenges of working for human rights in the contemporary world.

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