The European Council on Foreign Relations

Algeria the in-betweener

Date: 14th October 2011  |  Author: Susi Dennison ,

Categories: Middle East and North Africa,
Tags: arab spring, democracy, democracy , libya, tunisia, algeria

Algeria is different. Before coming to Algiers on a research visit this week, this was the message that all the analysts that I spoke to were at pains to stress. After a packed few days here, I have to agree: despite being surrounded by Arab Spring countries, Algeria - with its deep scars of internal conflict - has neither the sense of hope and excitement in Tunisia, nor even the sense of a momentum for change felt among civil and political society in Morocco. Yet there are undeniable tensions around the political and socioeconomic status quo which are bubbling under the surface. 

The energy-rich government that runs Algeria had no obvious need to deepen ties with Europe: Algiers has always made clear that the relationship must represent a balance of interests, and since the Association Agreement was settled in 2005, the EU has failed to impress in terms of the hoped for inward investment to help it diversify its economy away from its heavy reliance on hydrocarbons, or indeed its promise of greater circular migration. Small wonder then that there is scepticism here in Algiers about the revamped European neighbourhood policy with its promise of more openness in Europe towards North African exports and migrants, and more investment in the region in return for political reform.  From the Algerian point of view, where bilateral ties with the EU member states based on cooperation on energy and counter terrorism are the principal priority,  the renewed ENP appears not only unlikely to be delivered, but also not particularly relevant to their position.  

And yet, despite these differences from the rest of the region,  Bouteflika’s government does care what the international community thinks, and is rattled enough by the winds of regional reform that are blowing around and through this country  to put on at least a show of willingness to allow the sort of increased openness that Europe claims is a priority in its neighbourhood relationships. How else to explain the package of proposed new ‘organic laws’ that are before the legislative assembly in Algiers now?

An understanding of these contradictions appears to lie in another descriptor of this country that I have heard in almost every discussion since arriving in here. Algeria is in between. It appears easier to characterise this country by the boxes it doesn’t quite fit into, rather than by what it is.  Algeria:

• Is between Europe and the Arab world – both geographically and culturally, and identifies with both. Residents of Algiers listen to French and Moroccan radio – watch France 24 and Al Jazeera , eat croissants for breakfast and spiced lamb for dinner.
   
• Is somewhere between being a  French and Arabic speaking country. Algerians speak a mixture of French and Arabic, but  many below the professional classes are reluctant to speak either to visitors because they are concerned that neither language is very pure. They are apologetic for this ‘melange’ of languages even to the point that the security guards in one government building we visited asked our taxi driver our names once we had gone into our meeting, because he was afraid to make mistakes in French or Arabic by speaking directly to us!
   
• Has a modern hydrocarbon based economy that thrives on informality.  It exports not only to European markets on its doorstep but also those further afield in China, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey.  But no one keeps track of how much oil they pump each year or manages this resource strategically.
   
• Is between the past and present – the legacy of the 1990s is everywhere and fear of instability infuses all walks of life. But opposition journalists now argue Algeria needs to break with its past in order to usher in a new generation of politicians. A government where all the key ministers are beyond retirement age runs a country where the population is very young with little opportunity to find work or support themselves. They are tired of living off subsidies from the rich state.  
   
• Between admiration and fear of the Arab spring – there is great admiration of what Tunisia and Egypt achieved in 2011, but through the lens of Algerian history there is a concern about the direction that these new democracies might take, with both Islamism and militarism – forces which have plagued Algeria’s recent history looming large. And above all, Algeria now finds itself surrounded by uncertainty, with neighbours on all sides fortunes rapidly changing.  
   
• Between democracy and authoritarianism. There is pluralism, but all parties stem from the government, with no organised or credible opposition. There is quite a free and lively print media but state TV offers pitiful choice and there are strong restrictions on freedom to demonstrate.
   
• Between hope and cynicism about the coming months and years. Some argue that their fortunes are tied to how events unfold elsewhere in the region in terms of how threatened ‘le pouvoir’ here feels. Tunisia elections later this month, Libya’s fortunes after the conflict, the international community’s reaction to the crackdown in Syria, could all play a role in dictating the extent to which the regime feels threatened enough in Algeria to usher in meaningful change.

So for the outside observer it is hard to gauge whether Algeria lies is on a path of change and continuity.   While few rule out the possibility that Algerians’ dissatisfaction with corruption, acute unemployment and infringements of basic human rights could boil over in the coming months or years, few really expect it either. But with so many variables at play, this is definitely a country to watch.

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